ND - GROWTH AND THE EXCHANGE RATE

2010. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Siglo XXI). Avaliable here in pdf format.

2010. Livro que contém os trabalhos apresentados no 4o. Fórum de Economia da Fundação Getulio Vargas.

2009. Brazil as all developing countries is subjected to the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange rate. Since 1991 Brazil stop neutralizing this tendency, and was stage of substitution of foreign for domestic savings, balance of payment crises and low growth. (Paper: Economía UNAM, México, Vol. 6, No. 18). Portuguese version available.

2009. Brazil as all developing countries is subjected to the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange rate. Since 1991 Brazil stop neutralizing this tendency, and was stage of substitution of foreign for domestic savings, balance of payment crises and low growth. (Paper: Econômica, Rio de Janeiro, V. 11, No. 1 Spanish version available.

2009. Porque essa política vai contra os princípios fundamentalistas neoliberais aprendidos pelos economistas nas suas escolas (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).

2009. Because this policy goes against the neoliberal fundamentalist principles that the economists learned in their schools. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).

2008. In developing countries there is the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange rate. If countries do not neutralize it, they will experiment slow growth, and catching up will not happen. (Chapter 4 of book to be published, Globalization and Competition). Spanish version and Portuguese version available.

2008. The Dutch disease or natural resources curse is a major market failure to the extent that appreciates the exchange rate and makes not profitable industries using technology in the state of the art. English version available.

2008. A country suffering from the Dutch disease has two "equilibrium" exchange rates: the "current equilibrium" that is inconsistent with economic growth, and the"industrial equilibrium" that will be achieved if the country is able to neutralize the disease. (Paper: Brazilian Journal of Political Economy)

2008. A country suffering from the Dutch disease has two "equilibrium" exchange rates: the "current equilibrium" that is inconsistent with economic growth, and the"industrial equilibrium" that will be achieved if the country is able to neutralize the disease. (Paper in edited book) English version published in Brazilian Journal of Political Economy)

2008. Contrarily to what say conventional economists, current account deficit does not imply excess demand it may simply be the outcome of an overvalued exchange rate. (Article with Paulo Gala: Valor).

2008. Lula's new industrial policy is welcomed, but it dos not replace a non-competitive exchange rate.(Article: Folha de S.Paulo)

2007. Trade cannot be de-linked from finance because the exchange rate represents a major intersection between the two field. Yet, the exchange rate is forgotten in international trade and in economic growth courses, and in trade negotiations at WTO. Countries that have reserve currencies abhor taking on the exchange rate (Intervention at UNCTAD seminar)

2009. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system; a first attempt to build new-developmental macroeconomics. (This book is an atualized version of Macroeconomia da Estagnação). Available in bookstores

2007. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system. A first presentation of the developmental macroeconomics. Why Brazil failed to grow fast after the Real Plan. (Book: Editora 34) Out of print; availble in this site. English version available: Developing Brazil (2009).

2007. Tariffs are often not protectionist but compensate an overvalued currency. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).

2006. Between 1994 and 1999, foreign savings substitute domestic ones instead of increasing investment (72,5%) The inverse happened when the country experienced current account surplus (113,9%). (Paper, just in this site) Portuguese version available.

2006. The causes of the desindustrialization and quasi-stagnation of the economy are a non-neutralized Dutch disease and the policy of growth with foreign savings. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)

2006. FHC and Lula incurred in exchange rate populism (populismo cambial). (Interview: O Estado de S.Paulo)

2006. The rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings was high in Brazil in the period 1994-99, as the inverse rate was also high in the 2000-05 period. The critique of growth with foreign savings applied to Brazil. (Unpublished paper)