2007. Interview to Tatiana Bautzer on the book "Macroeconomia da Estagnação": the Dutch disease is one of the causes of real's overapreciation. (Valor, 18.5)
NEW-DEVELOPMENTAL THEORY (NDT)
ND - CRITIQUE OF GROWTH WITH FOREIGN INDEBTEDNESS POLICY
2007. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings: the consequent exchange rate appreciation increases artificially wages and causes the substitution of domestic with foreign savings. English version available.(Paper: Revista de Economia Política)
2007. If we compare the real and effective exchange rate in Brazil before 1990-92 with the present one, it will be clear that Brazil is victim of the Dutch disease. Before that, we were able to neutralize it we are not anymore, and the consequence is disastrous to the Brazilian economy. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
2007. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings: the consequent exchange rate appreciation increases artificially wages and causes the substitution of domestic with foreign savings. Portuguese and Spanish versions available.(Paper to be published in book)
2007. Commercial globalization is a major opportunity for developing countries, financial globalization, a disaster. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
2006. Between 1994 and 1999, foreign savings substitute domestic ones instead of increasing investment (72,5%) The inverse happened when the country experienced current account surplus (113,9%). English version available.
2006. Between 1994 and 1999, foreign savings substitute domestic ones instead of increasing investment (72,5%) The inverse happened when the country experienced current account surplus (113,9%). (Paper, just in this site) Portuguese version available.
2006. The rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings was high in Brazil in the period 1994-99, as the inverse rate was also high in the 2000-05 period. The critique of growth with foreign savings applied to Brazil. (Unpublished paper)
2006. The rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings was high in Brazil in the period 1994-99, as the inverse rate was also high in the 2000-05 period. The critique of growth with foreign savings applied to Brazil.(Paper)
2005. The balance of payment crises in developing countries (originated in the strategy of growth with foreign savings) and the enormous US current account deficit are both the outcome of economic populism. The later problem points out to a hard landing. English version available.(Paper: Estudos Econômicos) .
2005. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings that I have been doing since 2001. This version was substantially improved in 2006 receiving the new title "Why foreign savings fail to cause growth", in English, and "Por que a poupança externa não promove crescimento" in Portuguese. I keep this version here just for the record. (Paper: Texto para Discussão)
2005. The Lula administrtion cannot avoid exchange rate appreciation because it is trapped by its policy on the interest rate. To buy dollars is impossible given the financial costs involved.(Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
2004. The critique of the growth cum foreign savings strategy adopted in the Cardoso administration. Foreign finance does not cause growth. Spanish version available. (Paper: International Journal of Political Economy)*
2002. With Yoshiaki Nakano. Developing countries' poor performance in the 1990s is related to the Washington strategy of growth with foreign savings. Portuguese version available.(Paper presented to International Post Keynesian Workshop).
2003. With Yoshiaki Nakano. Developing countries poor performance in the 1990s is related to the Washington strategy of growth with foreign savings and open capital accounts. English version available.(Paper Revista de Economia Política)*
2002. The growth cum foreign savings strategy and the consequent exchange rate evaluation is the basic cause behind Cardoso administration's poor economic performance. (Revista de Economia Politica, 23(3) July 2003).*
2002. The growth cum foreign savings strategy and the consequent exchange rate overevaluation is the basic cause behind Cardoso administration's poor economic performance. Portuguese version available: O Segundo Consenso de Washington e a Quase-Estagnação da Economia Brasileira. (Paper: BNDES 50 Years)*
2001. With Yoshiaki Nakano. A critique of economic policy - particularly of the high interest rates - adopted from 1995. Originally it was written as a document to PSDB. It is one of the founding papers of New Developmentalism. Spanish version available. (Paper/document: Revista de Economia Política, July 2002).*
2001 With Yoshiaki Nakano. A critique of economic policy since 1995, showing that Central Bank s basic interest rate is absurd and can be reduced. Portuguese version available. (Paper/document: Instituciones y Desarrollo, May 2002).
2002. Foreign savings financed by direct investment often increase domestic consumption instead of the increase in the rate of investment. (Folha de S.Paulo, 18.1.2002).