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Economia brasileira desde 2003


  Documentos 61 a 120 de 178
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Nova Bretton Woods (Folha, 3.11.08)
2008. A agência que substituir o FMI deverá alertar os países que ultrapassarem o limite de déficit em conta corrente (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).
Transformar pré-sal em riqueza é desafio (Folha, 29.9.08)
2008. In order to transform the "pre-sal" in wealth, not in curse, it will be necessary to neutralize the embodied Dutch disease. (Debate: Folha de S.Paulo).
Existe doença holandesa no Brasil?
2008. With Nelson Marconi. In Brazil the Dutch disease is not as serious as in oil countries, but it is sufficiently serious to cause gradual deindustrialization. Paper in edited book. (Paper in Doença Holandesa e Indústria)
Política industrial e câmbio (Folha, 19.5.08)
2008. A política industrial anunciada merece apoio, mas não substitui uma taxa de câmbio não-competitiva (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
Lula e a dialética (Folha, 24.3.08)
2008. It seems that Lula is understanding that the present exchange rate represents a real danger for the country. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
BC gostaria de já ter subido juro e pode fazê-lo em abril, diz Bresser (Estado, 14.3.08)
2008. Only the control of capital inflows will make the exchange rate again competitive. (Interview to Luciana Xavier, O Estado de S.Paulo)
Crescimento e desindustrialização (Folha, 10.3.08)
2008. The manufacturing industry is growing while it is prematurely desindustrializing due to moderate but not neutralized Dutch disease. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).
Depois do consenso neoliberal, o retorno dos empresários industriais?
2008. With Eli Diniz. Brazilian industrial entrepreneurs associated with the state bureaucracy were dominant from 1930 to late 1980s. Now, they may be returning to power. At least they are better prepared for that. (Paper to be published)
Crise bancária e regulação (Folha, 11.2.08)
2008. The present financial crisis is probably the worst since 1929 because it adds a banking crisis to a long term current account deficit in the US that reduced trust in the dollar. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo 11.2.08).
Burocracia pública e classes dirigentes no Brasil
2007. The Brazilian state bureaucracy was part of the ruling class in association with the industrial bourgeoisie between the 1930s and the 1980s. English version available. (Paper: Revista de Sociologia e Política (Univ.Paraná).
Agronegócio, indústria e taxa de câmbio (Folha, 24.09.07)
2007. It is possible and desirable to have a national agreement assuring a more competitive exchange rate. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).
Instituições mortas (Folha, 10.09.07)
2007. IMF and World Bank are dead institutions. The former engaged in the growth cum foreign savings policy the later, with neo-liberal reforms. Both represent the interest of the rich countries. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
Chained cycles of society and the state in Brazil
2007. Brazilian society underwent two cycles in the twentieth century, followed, with a gap, by the respective political coalition. Between the beginning of the century and 1964, the first society cycle, "Nação e Desenvolvimento", corresponded at state level by the National-Developmentalist political pact (1930-1984). The second , "Democracia e Justiça Social", begins in the late 1960s and gets exhausted in middle 2000s. It correspond to two political coalitions: first, between 1977 and 1987, the 1977 Popular-Democratic Pact, that achieves democratic transition and political power in 1985 but collapses two years later it follows a political vacuum and, from 1991 to the present, we have the Liberal-Dependent Pact precariously combined with the democratic and social ideas - and no real economic development. (Section of the book Macroeconomia da Estagnação)
A festa acabou (Folha, 27.08.07)
2007. The August 2007 financial crisis marks the end of the extraordinary growth cycle that the world economy experienced in the last five years.(Article: Folha de S.Paulo).
Brasil perdeu idéia de Nação (Site:www.itv.org.br, 24.8.07)
2007. In global capitalism nation-states compete. As Brazil lost the idea of nation, it follows economic policies recommended by its competitors, and, so, is falling behind. (Entrevista ao Instituto Teotônio Vilela sobre o livro Macroeconomia da Estagnação)
Developing Brazil - Overcoming the Failure of the Washington Consensus
2009. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system; a first presentation of the developmental macroeconomics. Why Brazil failed to grow fast after the Real Plan. English version available. The high interest-overvalued currency trap. (This book is an atualized version of Macroeconomia da Estagnação)
Macroeconomia da Estagnação: crítica da ortodoxia convencional no Brasil pós-1994
2007. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system; a first presentation of the developmental macroeconomics. Why Brazil failed to grow fast after the Real Plan. English version available. (Book: Editora 34) Developing Brazil is an atualized version of this book
A política de juros e de câmbio está no rumo do crescimento? (Estado, 01.08.07)
2007. Debate with Ilan Goldfajn a good way of comparing new developmentalism and conventional orthodoxy. (Two pages in O Estado de S.Paulo)
Tarifas, câmbio e OMC (Folha, 30.07.07)
2007. Tariffs are often not protectionist but compensate an overvalued currency. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).
Tarifa x câmbio (Folha, 02.07.07)
2007. The Dutch disease is appreciating dangerously the real. Tarifs are an incomplete but effective way of neutralizing such major market failure. The Brazilin authorities are correct in rejectind the Doha negotiatins. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).
México e Brasil (Folha, 18.06.07)
2007. Mexico and Brazil are good examples of what represents dependence, international subordination, in the competitive times of globalization. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo, 18.6).
Ex-ministro Bresser-Pereira critica o câmbio apreciado e as altas taxas de juros (FIESP, 13.6.07)
2007. Brazil's economic growth is being threatened by conventional orthodoxy's macroeconomic policies. The overvalued exchange rate that may only be explained by the Dutch disease (given the trade surplus) is behind such over-appreciation that seriously threatens Brazilian manufacturing industry. (FIESP press release, 13.6.2007)
Complexo de lanterninha (Folha, 04.06.07)
2007. Brazil is not growing well but just profiting from world economy's prosperity to follow behind.(Article: Folha de S.Paulo).
Neutralização da doença holandesa (Valor, 31.05.07)
2007. The competent neutralization of the Dutch disease requires an export contribution on the goods that profit from abudandant and cheap natural resources. Such contributibution must be marginal, keep high profits of producers, while moves upward the supply curve of the product and limits apreciation of the real. The money of the contribution should be used to create a stabilization fund for primary commodities. (Article: Valor).
Ganho ao invés de confisco (Estado, 18 a 22.05.07)
2007. Given the Dutch disease, I am not proposing confiscation but a marginal tax on exports that will not hurt but will stabilize commodities' production and profitability. (Two articles by Celso Ming and my letter to him)
Bresser-Pereira critica juros altos, câmbio baixo e ajuste fiscal frouxo (Gazeta Mercantil, 21.05.07)
2007. Interview to Cristina Borges Guimarães on "Macroeconomia da Estagnação": Brazil needs low interest rate, competitve exchange rate, and austere fiscal policy to overcome quasi-stagnation and grow (Gazeta Mercantil,21.5)
Para Bresser, Brasil está em ciclo vicioso (Folha, 20.05.07)
2007. Interview to Cristiane Barbieri on Bresser-Pereira's latest book Macroeconomia da Estagnação. New developmentalism is a third discourse between old developmentalism and conventional orthodoxy.(Interview: Folha de S.Paulo).
Administrar dólar é fundamental (Valor, 18.05.07)
2007. Interview to Tatiana Bautzer on the book "Macroeconomia da Estagnação": the Dutch disease is one of the causes of real's overapreciation. (Valor, 18.5)
Esse câmbio é um desastre para a economia (Estado, 16.05.07)
2007. Short interview on the Dutch Disease in Brazil. (O Estado de S.Paulo).
Macroeconomia da estagnação e novo desenvolvimentismo
2007. Paper comparing three growth strategies: old or national-developmentalism, new developmentalism, and Washington's conventional orthodoxy - actually a form of neutralizing the catching up of medium income countries. Updated and improved version of "Novo desenvolvimentismo e ortodoxia convencional". (Paper in book edited by Bresser-Pereira)
PAC apenas não resolverá (GVexecutivo, 6(3).5.07
2007. PAC is an welcomed program for the coordination of investments, but without a competent macroeconomic policy it will not make Brasil resume real economic growth.(Entrevista a Françoise Terzian, GVexecutivo)
Dois diagnósticos (Folha, 23.04.07)
2007. Folha de S.Paulo, 23.04.2007
Desindustrialização e doença holandesa (Folha, 09.04.07)
2007. If we compare the real and effective exchange rate in Brazil before 1990-92 with the present one, it will be clear that Brazil is victim of the Dutch disease. Before that, we were able to neutralize it we are not anymore, and the consequence is disastrous to the Brazilian economy. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
A próxima crise mundial (Folha, 12.03.07)
2007. US's huge and persistent current account deficts are increasing total foreign debt and international liquidity. They spur speculation and preannounce crisis. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).
Não conserta o desconserto (Folha, 04.02.07)
2007. Given the exchange rate and the interest rate, the Brazilian industry is condemned to quasi-stagnation. PAC is Ok, but will not solve the problem. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
Juros, crescimento econômico e PAC (Estado, 31.01.07)
2007. PAC is nice but innefective industrial policy. It will not lead make Brazil resume growth, and the same aplies to neo-liberal reforms. Only real macroeconomic equilibriu will do that. (Interview to Broadcast).
Globalização comercial e financeira (Folha, 29.01.07)
2007. Commercial globalization is a major opportunity for developing countries, financial globalization, a disaster. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
História da corrupção e ineficiência (Folha, 15.01.07)
2007. Conventional orthodoxy's new "discovery": the cause of quasi-stagnation in Brazil is corruption, not the high interest rate nor the low exchange rate. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).
El nuevo desarrollismo y la ortodoxia convencional
2007. Paper comparing three growth strategies: old or national-developmentalism, new developmentalism, and Washingtons conventional orthodoxy - actually a form of neutralizing the catching up of medium income countries. Portuguese and English versions available. (Paper: Economía Unam)
Substitution of foreign for domestic savings: the Brazilian case
2006. Between 1994 and 1999, foreign savings substitute domestic ones instead of increasing investment (72,5%) The inverse happened when the country experienced current account surplus (113,9%). (Paper, just in this site) Portuguese version available.
Substituição de poupança interna pela externa: o caso do Brasil
2006. Between 1994 and 1999, foreign savings substitute domestic ones instead of increasing investment (72,5%) The inverse happened when the country experienced current account surplus (113,9%). (Paper available only in this site) English version available.
Substituição da poupança interna pela externa: o caso do Brasil
2006. Between 1994 and 1999, foreign savings substitute domestic ones instead of increasing investment (72,5%) The inverse happened when the country experienced current account surplus (113,9%). English version available.
O novo desenvolvimentismo e a ortodoxia convencional
2007. Paper comparing three growth strategies: old or national-developmentalism, new developmentalism, and Washingtons conventional orthodoxy - actually a form of neutralizing the catching up of medium income countries. English and Spanish versions available. (Paper: Revista São Paulo em Perspectiva)
Triste 2007 (Folha, 18.12.06)
2006. President Lula wants 5% growth, but there is no signal that he is prepared to face conventional orthodoxy and change macroeconomic policy. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).
Doença holandesa e estagnação (Folha, 04.12.06)
2006. The causes of the desindustrialization and quasi-stagnation of the economy are a non-neutralized Dutch disease and the policy of growth with foreign savings. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
É a competição, estúpido... (Estado, 26.11.06)
2006. A large interview on the Brazilian economy and the lack of a national growth strategy in a global environment defined by high competition among nation-states. (Interview to Laura Greenhalgh: O Estado de S.Paulo).
PSDB e PT estão superados (Jornal do Brasil, 21.11.06)
2006. Either PT or PSDB have an answer on how to face and overcome the Brazilian economy's 26 years old quasi-stagnation because they lost the idea of nation. (Interview to Rodrigo de Almeida: Jornal do Brasil).
A Argentina aprendeu (Folha, 06.11.06)
2006. Argentina learned from experience, rejects conventional orthodoxy's advises, keeps its exchange rate competitive, and grows. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
Modelo buscava crescimento (Folha, 31.10.06)
2006. Bresser-Pereira and Fernando Cardim de Carvalho on new developmentalism. (Interview: Folha de S.Paulo)
Candidatos se definem (Folha, 23.10.06)
2006. In the end of the presidential campaign Alckmin, differently from Lula, was able to articulate sensible ideas on economic policy. It will not be engough. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
Controlar entrada de capital não é crime, afirma Bresser (Folha, 15.10.06)
2006. There is an alternative to the conventional orthodoxy rulling the Brazilian economy. Capital controls are not a sin. (Interview to Catia Seabra: Folha de S.Paulo)
Bresser-Pereira critica FHC e Lula de populismo cambial (Estado, 10.10.06)
2006. FHC and Lula incurred in exchange rate populism (populismo cambial). (Interview: O Estado de S.Paulo)
Equação do segundo turno (Folha, 09.10.06)
2006. The rich and the poor voted for Lula in the first turn the middle class, for Alckmin. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
Até o dia da eleição (Folha, 25.09.06)
2006. Alckmin's economic program - a step ahead, but insufficient. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).
Idéias para um país que precisa crescer (Estado, 01.09.06)
2006. Debate on economic growth of Brazil with Eliana Cardoso, Ricardo Carneiro e Samuel Pessoa. (O Estado de São Paulo, Aliás Debate)
Economistas cobram ajuste fiscal severo (Estado, 29.08.06)
2006. A preview of the debate to be published three days later on the Brazilian economic growth. O Estado de S.Paulo.
Armadilha do câmbio (Folha, 14.08.06)
2006. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
The substitution of foreign for domestic savings and its inverse: the Brazilian case
2006. The rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings was high in Brazil in the period 1994-99, as the inverse rate was also high in the 2000-05 period. The critique of growth with foreign savings applied to Brazil. (Unpublished paper)
The new developmentalism and conventional orthodoxy
2006. Paper comparing three growth strategies old or national-developmentalism, new developmentalism, and Washingtons conventional orthodoxy - actually a form of neutralizing the catching up of medium income countries. An improved version available with the title "Macroeconomics of stagnation and new developmentalism".(Paper Economie Appliquée).
Juros, câmbio e ajuste fiscal (Folha, 03.07.06)
2006. Fiscal adjustment is always necessary, but, contrarilly to what conventional orthodoxy says, it is not its lack in Brazil that explain the astronomic interest rates. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)
 
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