The Political Construction of Brazil

2017. An encompassing analysis of Brazil’s society, economy and politics since the Independence. A national-dependent interpretation. Three historical cycles of the relation state-society: State and Territorial Integration Cycle (1822-1929), Nation and Development Cycle (1930-1977) and Democracy and Social Justice Cycle (1977-2010). Crisis since then. (Book: Lynne Rienner Publishers)

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Macroeconomia Desenvolvimentista

2016. With José Luis Oreiro e Nelson Marconi. Our more complete analysis of Developmental Macroeconomics – the central economic theory within New Developmentalism. (book)

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Works in English

Documentos 1 a 60 de 161

The two forms of capitalism: developmentalism and economic liberalism

2017. Capitalism and the state are either developmental, or liberal. Developmentalism and economic liberalism are two forms of coordinating capitalism. Capitalism was born developmental anywhere, in England or in the US, in Germany or in Brazil, in Japan or in China. (paper: Brazilian Journal of Political Economy)

Neutralizing the Dutch disease

2018. A retention or tax on the export of commodities will neutralize the Dutch disease and assure to the manufacturing industry equal conditions in the competion with other countries. The tax will not represent a buden to the exporters, because they receive back their money on the form of depreciation of the real. (Paper to be published)

Rentier-financier capitalism

2018. Rentiers, the inheritors of the entrepreneurs, and financiers, a special type of technobureaucrats, are the fuling classes in contemporary capitalism; neoliberalism is their ideology. The financiers manage the wealth of the idle rentiers and act as organic intellectuals of this very narrow class coalition. (Paper to be published)

Growth and distribution: a revised classical model

2018. The phases of capitalist development having as criteria the variables of Marx's model of the falling tendency of the rate of profit. It actualizes the book Lucro, Acumulação e Crise (1986). (Paper in the Brazilian Journal of Political Economy)

Economic nationalism and developmentalism

2018. An encompassing paper on economic nationalism, its relation to developmentalism, and why it is a condition of growth in a world where nation-states rather compete than cooperate. (published paper)

New developmentalism: Macroeconomics and political economy for developing countries

2017. A short (4.000 words) summary of new developmentalism - a new theoretical framework for allow middle-income countries to grow again. (DOC Research Institute website) (Available in Portuguese)

Secular stagnation in the framework of rentier-financier capitalism and globalization

2017. Rentier-financier capitalism is in economic crisis since 2008 and in political crisis since 2016. The secular stagnation issue was brought again to the fore, in so far as capitalism turned again liberal (instead of developmental) since 1980. But it is more likely that rich countries will face low growth, financial instability, and increasing inequality, unless they are able to criticize economic liberalism. (Paper for Berlin conference)

Why the 'Rest' doesn't need foreign finance

2016. Against conventional wisdom, countries that don't incur into current account deficits grow faster, because such deficits correspond to an overvalued currency that encourages consumption and discourages investment. (Paper)

Managerial reform and legitimization of the social state

2017. A central objective of the 1995 Managerial Reform of the State was to turn more efficient the large social services, and so, legitimize the Social State defined in the 1988 Constitution. Paper Portuguese version available

How to neutralize the Dutch disease notwithstanding the natural resources curse

2017. Presentation to Likhachov Scientific Conference in St.Petersburg, Russia.

How to neutralize the Dutch disease notwithstanding the natural resource curse

2017. The Dutch disease is an economic problem that a simple economic policy may resolve, while the natural resource curse is a political-cultural problem very difficult to resolve. Paper presented in St. Petersburg.

Brazil's 36 years-old quasi-stagnation and the interest rate-exchange rate trap

2017. The Brazilian economy is quasi stagnant from 1990, because since the 1980s it dos not have public savings to finance public investments, and because, since 1990, it is caught in a high interest rate-overvalued currency trap that makes the competent industrial firms not competitive and unable to invest.

Democracy and growth in pre-industrial countries

2017. Pre-industrial countries are supposed to realize their capitalist revolution in a global political famework that requires that they are democratic. But today's rich and middle income countries made it while their regimes was authoritarian. Publicado como Texto para Discussão

Democracy and growth in pre-industrial countries

2015. Pre-industrial countries are supposed to realize their capitalist revolution in a global political famework that requires that they are democratic. But today's rich and middle income countries made it while their regimes was authoritarian. (Texto para Discussão EESP/FGV n.410, january 2016). Publicado no Brazilian Journal of Political Economy.

Models of developmental state

2016. All industrial revolutions happened in the framework of a developmental state. We can distinguish in history four basic models of developmental state. Portuguese version available.(Texto p/ Discussão)

The political crisis of globalization

2016. National solidarity, first, and social-democracy, later on, have mitigated Capitalist exploitation. The demise of these two institutions led global capitalism to the present political crisis. (essay)

Why developing countries should not incur foreign debt: the Brazilian experience

2016. Paper with Thiago de Moraes Moreira. Current account deficits, even when financed by direct investments, hinder instead of enhance growth because the cause overvaluation of the national currency. (Paper in edited book to be published)

Reflecting on New Developmentalism and classical developmentalism

2015. New Developmentalism is a theory that was preceded by Classical Developmentalism. It focus on the equilibrium of five macroeconomic prices, and of the two macro accounts, particularly the current or external account.

Industrial policy and exchange rate skepticism

2015. With Fernando Rugitsky. Classical Developmentalism (Prebisch et al.) was skeptical in relation to exchange rate policy, preferring industrial policy on the form of high import taxes, while for New Developmentalism the neutralization of the tendency to the cyclical and chronic overvaluation of the exchange rate is the key policy to be adopted. (Paper Cambridge Journal of Economics)

State-society cycles and political pacts in a national-dependent society: Brazil

2015. Brazil is a national-dependent society. The three cycles of its independent history were, successively, "State and Territorial Integration", "Nation and Development" and "Democracy and Social Justice". Portuguese version available. (Paper, Latin America Research Review)

The macroeconomic tripod and the Workers' Party administrations

2015. Since 2003 a developmental government tried change the perverse liberal tripod, but eventually failed, as it was victim of exchange rate and fiscal populism, while the international situation deteriorated. (Paper in edited book)

Developmental class coalitions: historical experiences and prospects

2015. With Marcus Ianoni. A theoretical discussion of developmental class coalitions, and its application in three experiences: mercantilism, Bismarkism, and the Golden Years of Capitalism. (Paper to be published in edited book - Texto para Discussão EESP/FGV n. 386)

Developmental Macroeconomics

2014. With Nelson Marconi and José Luís Oreiro. Developmental Macroeconomics is a book on development macroeconomics associated with New Developmentalism. In its core are the exchange rate and the current account, instead of the budget deficit and the interest rate. (Book: Routledge)

The new developmentalism

2014. (Paper in edited book)

An empirical study of the substitution of foreign for domestic savings in Brazil

2014. With Eliane Araújo e Paulo Gala. Econometric comprovation of a high rate of substituition of foreign for domestic savings. (Paper: Revista EconomiA) Portuguese version available.

A theoretical framework for a Structuralist Development Macroeconomics

2014. With José Luis Oreiro and Nelson Marconi. A synthesis of structuralist development macroeconomics and the critique of the "foreign constraint" thesis. (Paper in edited book)

The access to demand

2014. In developing countries it is not enough to secure demand for entrepreneurs to invest; additionally, is required access to it, which only a competitive exchange rate can assure. (Paper Keynesian Brazilian Review)

Development, progress and economic growth

2014. Progress was associated with the advance of reason, development with the fulfillment of the five political objectives that modern societies set for themselves: security, freedom, economic well-being, social justice and protection of the environment. (Paper in edited book).

Inequality and the phases of capitalism

2013. How did inequality vary along the history of capitalism? Which were the phases, and the role of technical progress? Why inequality increased since the 1980s in rich countries? (Paper in Forum for Social Economics)

The value of the exchange rate and the Dutch disease

2013. A revised version of my 2008 paper on the Dutch disease in which I distinguish the value from the market price of the exchange rate. (Paper: Brazilian Journal of Political Economy)

The hegemony constraints in the neoliberal years of capitalism

2013. The neoliberal policy regime was defined by economic, political and "hegemony" constraints, but while not complying with first two implies malfunctioning of the system, the non compliance of hegemony constraints just means that the interest of the neoliberal class coalition were not served. (Paper in edited book)

The exchange rate at the center of development economics

2012. In so far as structuralist development macroeconomics assumes that developing countries face a tendency to the cyclical overvaluation of the eschange rate, it makes the exchange rate chronically overvalued. Thus, it ceases to be just a short term macroeconomic problem, to be part of the corre of development economics. (Paper: Estudos Avançados) Portuguese version

The new developmentalism as a Weberian ideal type

2012 (2015). New developmentalism and its structuralist development macroeconomics is theory/strategy, here compared with old developmentalism and liberal orthodoxy. (Paper in book in homage of Roberto Frenkel)

Structuralist macroeconomics and the new developmentalism

2012. A sum up of a structuralist development macroeconomics and of the ensuing national development strategy: new developmentalism. A theoretical step ahead in relation to Globalization and Competition. (Paper: Brazilian Journal of Political Economy)

Five models of capitalism

2012. There are three models of developed capitalism (liberal-democractic or Anglo-Saxon, social or European model, and Japanese model and two models of developing capitalism: the Asian developmental model and the liberal-dependent model. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política). Portuguese version available.

Democracy and capitalist revolution

2012. Transition to democracy can happen before the capitalist revolution, but democratic consolidation depends that it is "completed", i.e., that economic surplus is appropriated in the market. (Paper: Économie Appliquée) Versão atualizada de Why did democracy become the preferred political regime only in the twentieth century

For a heterodox mainstream economics: an academic manifesto

2011. The core of neoclassical economics (general equilibrium and rational expectations macroeconomics) is demoralized. A Keynesian-structuralist alternative is available. What is necessary to do to become mainstream again. Portuguese version available. Also available a Slide presentation.

Why economics should be a modest and reasonable science

2012. Paper presented to the annual meeting of the Association for Evolutionary Economics (AFEE), receiving the James Street Scholar for 2012. Chicago, January 7, 2012. (Journal of Economic Issues).

From old to new developmentalism in Latin America

2011. My more complete paper on new developmentalism. In José Antonio Ocampo and Jaime Ros, eds. Handbook of Latin America Economics, Oxford: Oxford University Press. (Paper). Portuguese version available.

Why did democracy become consolidated only in the twentieth century?

2011. (Paper) The final version of this paper is Democracy and capitalist revolution,but I decided to conserve this earlier version.

The global financial crisis, neoclassical economics, and the neoliberal years of capitalism

2010. The 2008 financial crisis signaled the end of 30 Neoliberal Years of Capitalism. It was caused by the deregulation promoted by the neoliberal ideology justified "scientifically" by neoclassical economics. Paper (Revue de la Régulation).

Democratization and equality

2010. Democratization is the improvement of the quality of democracy. Besides reduction of political inequality, it requires reduction of economic inequality. (Paper for the Festschrift of José Maria Maravall).

Why inequality does not fall?

2010. Economic constraints are not the only cause for economic inequality remaining so high in the world. (Short article: Peace Review)

Democracy, social state and managerial reform

2010. The public management reform was required by the rise of the social or welfare state, and proved instrumental in legitimizing it in so far as it makes social and scientific services provided by the state efficient. Portuguese version available. (Article: Revista de Administração de Empresas)

The 2008 financial crisis and neoclassical economics

2010. The 2008 financial crisis was caused by the deregulation promoted by neoliberal and financialized capitalism with the support of neoclassical economics. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política)

Common currency and economic integration in Mercosur

2010. With Marcio Holland. Latin America integration, particularly Mercorsul, would be strengthened if there was a common currency. We should work on this direction. (Paper : Journal of Post Keynesian Economics.

The global financial crisis and a new capitalism?

2009. The 2008 financial crisis was caused by the deregulation promoted by neoliberal and financialized capitalism with the support of neoclassical economics. (Paper: Journal of Post Keynesian Economics)

Assault on the State and on the market: neoliberalism and economic theory

2009. Neoliberalism and its "scientific" justification, neoclassical economics, were more than just an assault on the state it was also an assault to the market. (Essay: Estudos Avançados). A slightly modified version, "Economics: an assault on the state", has been published in Challenge, 53 (5), September 2010: 57-77.

The two methods and the hard core of economics

2008. Neoclassical economists use the hipothetical deductive method, but an empirical-deductive method, particularly the new historical facts approach, is a a more advisable aternative. (Paper: Journal of Post Keynesian Economics). Portuguese version available.

From the national-bourgeoisie to the dependency interpretation of Latin America

2009. Over-exploitation as well as associated dependency interpretations denied the possibility of national bourgeoisies in the region and contributed to weakening Latin American nations. Only a third version of dependency - the national-dependent interpretation - escaped this fate. Published in English in Latin American Perspectives 178, vol. 38 (3) May 2011Portuguese and French versions available. (Paper: Latin American Perspectives).

Tasks in building a New Bretton Woods (Website, 10.11.08)

2008. To avoid new global financial crisis it would be necessary to convene among nations a maximum current account deficit in relation to GDP that would be allowed to countries. (Article just published in this website)

The Dutch disease and its neutralization: a Ricardian approach

2008. A country suffering from the Dutch disease has two "equilibrium" exchange rates: the "current equilibrium" that is inconsistent with economic growth, and the"industrial equilibrium" that will be achieved if the country is able to neutralize the disease. (Paper: Brazilian Journal of Political Economy)

The political economy of global economic disgovernance

2005. There is no financial order in the world. The the enormous US current account deficit in the US points out to a hard landing. Portuguese version available.(Texto para Discussão EESP 151)

Inflation targeting in Brazil: A Keynesian approach

2007. With Cleomar Gomes. The paper claimsthat inflation targeting policy was adopted in Brazil before the interest rate trap was faced and solved. This was a mistake because inflation targeting is good to manage monetary policy, not to change the monetary regime as it was in 1999 and still is necessary in Brazil. (Paper in edited book). Portuguese version available.

The key institution to economic growth

2008. Economic growth is the outcome of a national strategy of development. The characteristics and main tensions involved in these national strategies discussed. Improved English version of a paper previously published in Portuguese.

Macroeconomics of stagnation and new developmentalism in Latin America

2007.Paper comparing three growth strategies: old or national-developmentalism, new developmentalism, and Washingtons conventional orthodoxy - actually a form of neutralizing the catching up of medium income countries. Slightly improved version in relation to "New developmentalism and conventional orthodoxy". (Paper in the book Keynes for the Twentieth Century)

The political economy of trade, finance, and the exchange rate

2007. Trade cannot be de-linked from finance because the exchange rate represents a major intersection between the two field. Yet, the exchange rate is forgotten in international trade and in economic growth courses, and in trade negotiations at WTO. Countries that have reserve currencies abhor taking on the exchange rate (Intervention at UNCTAD seminar)

Chained cycles of society and the state in Brazil

2007. Brazilian society underwent two cycles in the twentieth century, followed, with a gap, by the respective political coalition. Between the beginning of the century and 1964, the first society cycle, "Nação e Desenvolvimento", corresponded at state level by the National-Developmentalist political pact (1930-1984). The second , "Democracia e Justiça Social", begins in the late 1960s and gets exhausted in middle 2000s. It correspond to two political coalitions: first, between 1977 and 1987, the 1977 Popular-Democratic Pact, that achieves democratic transition and political power in 1985 but collapses two years later it follows a political vacuum and, from 1991 to the present, we have the Liberal-Dependent Pact precariously combined with the democratic and social ideas - and no real economic development. (Section of the book Macroeconomia da Estagnação)

Developing Brazil - Overcoming the Failure of the Washington Consensus

2009. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system; a first presentation of the developmental macroeconomics. Why Brazil failed to grow fast after the Real Plan. English version available. The high interest-overvalued currency trap. (This book is an atualized version of Macroeconomia da Estagnação)

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