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Desenvolvimento econômico - Br
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Plano Bresser
Quase-estagnação desde 1980 - Br
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Debate sobre "Crescimento com Estabilidade"(2001)
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América Latina: Declaração de Madri (Clad)
Leis sobre Organizações Sociais
 
 
 

 

Works in English


  Documentos 1 a 60 de 153
How to neutralize the Dutch disease notwithstanding the natural resources curse
2017. Presentation to Likhachov Scientific Conference in St.Petersburg, Russia.
How to neutralize the Dutch disease notwithstanding the natural resource curse
2017. The Dutch disease is an economic problem that a simple economic policy may resolve, while the natural resource curse is a political-cultural problem very difficult to resolve. Paper presented in St. Petersburg.
Brazil's 36 years-old quasi-stagnation and the interest rate-exchange rate trap
2017. The Brazilian economy is quasi stagnant from 1990, because since the 1980s it dos not have public savings to finance public investments, and because, since 1990, it is caught in a high interest rate-overvalued currency trap that makes the competent industrial firms not competitive and unable to invest.
Models of developmental state
2016. All industrial revolutions happened in the framework of a developmental state. We can distinguish in history four basic models of developmental state. Portuguese version available.(Texto p/ Discussão)
The political crisis of globalization
2016. National solidarity, first, and social-democracy, later on, have mitigated Capitalist exploitation. The demise of these two institutions led global capitalism to the present political crisis. (essay)
Why developing countries should not incur foreign debt: the Brazilian experience
2016. Paper with Thiago de Moraes Moreira. Current account deficits, even when financed by direct investments, hinder instead of enhance growth because the cause overvaluation of the national currency. (Paper in edited book to be published)
Reflecting on New Developmentalism and classical developmentalism
2015. New Developmentalism is a theory that must be distinguished from really existing forms of developmentalism. It was preceded by Classical Developmentalism. Social-developmentalism is a version of the later characterized by a high preference for immediate consumption. Portuguese version available (Paper)
Industrial policy and exchange rate skepticism
2015. With Fernando Rugitsky. Classical Developmentalism (Prebisch et al.) was skeptical in relation to exchange rate policy, preferring industrial policy on the form of high import taxes, while for New Developmentalism the neutralization of the tendency to the cyclical and chronic overvaluation of the exchange rate is the key policy to be adopted. (Paper to be published)
Why the 'Rest' doesn't need foreign finance
2016. Paper to be published (TD-415)
Democracy and growth in pre-industrial countries
2015. Pre-industrial countries are supposed to realize their capitalist revolution in a global political famework that requires that they are democratic. But today's rich and middle income countries made it while their regimes was authoritarian. (Texto para Discussão EESP/FGV n.410, january 2016)
State-society cycles and political pacts in a national-dependent society: Brazil
2015. Brazil is a national-dependent society. The three cycles of its independent history were, successively, "State and Territorial Integration", "Nation and Development" and "Democracy and Social Justice". Portuguese version available. (Paper, Latin America Research Review)
After the demise of neoliberalism, a third (conservative) developmentalism?
2015. The first developmentalism was mercantilism, the second, Fordism, which was a progressive class coalition. After the 2008 Crisis neoliberalism turned demoralized, state intervention increased, and a third developmentalism is looming, but it will be a conservative capitalism due to the competition of China and other developing countries. (paper to be published)
The macroeconomic tripod and the Workers' Party administrations
2015. Since 2003 a developmental government tried change the perverse liberal tripod, but eventually failed, as it was victim of exchange rate and fiscal populism, while the international situation deteriorated. (Paper in edited book)
Developmental class coalitions: historical experiences and prospects
2015. With Marcus Ianoni. A theoretical discussion of developmental class coalitions, and its application in three experiences: mercantilism, Bismarkism, and the Golden Years of Capitalism. (Paper to be published in edited book - Texto para Discussão EESP/FGV n. 386)
Developmental Macroeconomics
2014. With Nelson Marconi and José Luís Oreiro. Developmental Macroeconomics is a book on development macroeconomics associated with New Developmentalism. In its core are the exchange rate and the current account, instead of the budget deficit and the interest rate. (Book: Routledge)
The new developmentalism
2014. (Paper in edited book)
An empirical study of the substitution of foreign for domestic savings in Brazil
2014. Econometric comprovation of a high rate of substituition of foreign for domestic savings. (Paper: Revista EconomiA) Portuguese version available.
A theoretical framework for a Structuralist Development Macroeconomics
2014. With José Luis Oreiro and Nelson Marconi. A synthesis of structuralist development macroeconomics and the critique of the "foreign constraint" thesis. (Paper in edited book)
The access to demand
2014. In developing countries it is not enough to secure demand for entrepreneurs to invest; additionally, is required access to it, which only a competitive exchange rate can assure. (Paper Keynesian Brazilian Review)
Development, progress and economic growth
2014. Progress was associated with the advance of reason, development with the fulfillment of the five political objectives that modern societies set for themselves: security, freedom, economic well-being, social justice and protection of the environment. (Paper in edited book).
Inequality and the phases of capitalism
2013. How did inequality vary along the history of capitalism? Which were the phases, and the role of technical progress? Why inequality increased since the 1980s in rich countries? (Paper in Forum for Social Economics)
The value of the exchange rate and the Dutch disease
2013. A revised version of my 2008 paper on the Dutch disease in which I distinguish the value from the market price of the exchange rate. (Paper: Brazilian Journal of Political Economy)
The hegemony constraints in the neoliberal years of capitalism
2013. The neoliberal policy regime was defined by economic, political and "hegemony" constraints, but while not complying with first two implies malfunctioning of the system, the non compliance of hegemony constraints just means that the interest of the neoliberal class coalition were not served. (Paper in edited book)
Latin America: after the neoliberal years, is the developmental state back in?
2012, with Daniela Theuer. Improved version of Um Estado novo-desenvolvimentista na América Latina?. Published also in French Amérique Latine : après les années néolibérales, l'État développementiste est-il de retour?
The exchange rate at the center of development economics
2012. In so far as structuralist development macroeconomics assumes that developing countries face a tendency to the cyclical overvaluation of the eschange rate, it makes the exchange rate chronically overvalued. Thus, it ceases to be just a short term macroeconomic problem, to be part of the corre of development economics. (Paper: Estudos Avançados) Portuguese version
The new developmentalism as a Weberian ideal type
2012 (2015). New developmentalism and its structuralist development macroeconomics is theory/strategy, here compared with old developmentalism and liberal orthodoxy. (Paper in book in homage of Roberto Frenkel)
Structuralist macroeconomics and the new developmentalism
2012. A sum up of a structuralist development macroeconomics and of the ensuing national development strategy: new developmentalism. A theoretical step ahead in relation to Globalization and Competition. (Paper: Brazilian Journal of Political Economy)
Five models of capitalism
2012. There are three models of developed capitalism (liberal-democractic or Anglo-Saxon, social or European model, and Japanese model and two models of developing capitalism: the Asian developmental model and the liberal-dependent model. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política). Portuguese version available.
Democracy and capitalist revolution
2012. Transition to democracy can happen before the capitalist revolution, but democratic consolidation depends that it is "completed", i.e., that economic surplus is appropriated in the market. (Paper: Économie Appliquée) Versão atualizada de Why did democracy become the preferred political regime only in the twentieth century
For a heterodox mainstream economics: an academic manifesto
2011. The core of neoclassical economics (general equilibrium and rational expectations macroeconomics) is demoralized. A Keynesian-structuralist alternative is available. What is necessary to do to become mainstream again. Portuguese version available. Also available a Slide presentation.
Why economics should be a modest and reasonable science
2012. Paper presented to the annual meeting of the Association for Evolutionary Economics (AFEE), receiving the James Street Scholar for 2012. Chicago, January 7, 2012. (Journal of Economic Issues).
From old to new developmentalism in Latin America
2011. My more complete paper on new developmentalism. In José Antonio Ocampo and Jaime Ros, eds. Handbook of Latin America Economics, Oxford: Oxford University Press. (Paper). Portuguese version available.
Why did democracy become consolidated only in the twentieth century?
2011. (Paper) The final version of this paper is Democracy and capitalist revolution,but I decided to conserve this earlier version.
The global financial crisis, neoclassical economics, and the neoliberal years of capitalism
2010. The 2008 financial crisis signaled the end of 30 Neoliberal Years of Capitalism. It was caused by the deregulation promoted by the neoliberal ideology justified "scientifically" by neoclassical economics. Paper (Revue de la Régulation).
Democratization and equality
2010. Democratization is the improvement of the quality of democracy. Besides reduction of political inequality, it requires reduction of economic inequality. (Paper for the Festschrift of José Maria Maravall).
Why inequality does not fall?
2010. Economic constraints are not the only cause for economic inequality remaining so high in the world. (Short article: Peace Review)
Democracy, social state and managerial reform
2010. The public management reform was required by the rise of the social or welfare state, and proved instrumental in legitimizing it in so far as it makes social and scientific services provided by the state efficient. Portuguese version available. (Article: Revista de Administração de Empresas)
The 2008 financial crisis and neoclassical economics
2010. The 2008 financial crisis was caused by the deregulation promoted by neoliberal and financialized capitalism with the support of neoclassical economics. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política)
Common currency and economic integration in Mercosur
2010. With Marcio Holland. Latin America integration, particularly Mercorsul, would be strengthened if there was a common currency. We should work on this direction. (Paper : Journal of Post Keynesian Economics.
The global financial crisis and a new capitalism?
2009. The 2008 financial crisis was caused by the deregulation promoted by neoliberal and financialized capitalism with the support of neoclassical economics. (Paper: Journal of Post Keynesian Economics)
Assault on the State and on the market: neoliberalism and economic theory
2009. Neoliberalism and its "scientific" justification, neoclassical economics, were more than just an assault on the state it was also an assault to the market. (Essay: Estudos Avançados). A slightly modified version, "Economics: an assault on the state", has been published in Challenge, 53 (5), September 2010: 57-77.
The two methods and the hard core of economics
2008. Neoclassical economists use the hipothetical deductive method, but an empirical-deductive method, particularly the new historical facts approach, is a a more advisable aternative. (Paper: Journal of Post Keynesian Economics). Portuguese version available.
From the national-bourgeoisie to the dependency interpretation of Latin America
2009. Over-exploitation as well as associated dependency interpretations denied the possibility of national bourgeoisies in the region and contributed to weakening Latin American nations. Only a third version of dependency - the national-dependent interpretation - escaped this fate. Published in English in Latin American Perspectives 178, vol. 38 (3) May 2011Portuguese and French versions available. (Paper: Latin American Perspectives).
Tasks in building a New Bretton Woods (Website, 10.11.08)
2008. To avoid new global financial crisis it would be necessary to convene among nations a maximum current account deficit in relation to GDP that would be allowed to countries. (Article just published in this website)
The Dutch disease and its neutralization: a Ricardian approach
2008. A country suffering from the Dutch disease has two "equilibrium" exchange rates: the "current equilibrium" that is inconsistent with economic growth, and the"industrial equilibrium" that will be achieved if the country is able to neutralize the disease. (Paper: Brazilian Journal of Political Economy)
The political economy of global economic disgovernance
2005. There is no financial order in the world. The the enormous US current account deficit in the US points out to a hard landing. Portuguese version available.(Texto para Discussão EESP 151)
Inflation targeting in Brazil: A Keynesian approach
2007. With Cleomar Gomes. The paper claimsthat inflation targeting policy was adopted in Brazil before the interest rate trap was faced and solved. This was a mistake because inflation targeting is good to manage monetary policy, not to change the monetary regime as it was in 1999 and still is necessary in Brazil. (Paper in edited book). Portuguese version available.
Growth and distribution: a revised classical model
2008. A classical model of growth with three types of technical progress, derived from the book Lucro, Acumulação e Crise. (To be published)
The key institution to economic growth
2008. Economic growth is the outcome of a national strategy of development. The characteristics and main tensions involved in these national strategies discussed. Improved English version of a paper previously published in Portuguese.
Macroeconomics of stagnation and new developmentalism in Latin America
2007.Paper comparing three growth strategies: old or national-developmentalism, new developmentalism, and Washingtons conventional orthodoxy - actually a form of neutralizing the catching up of medium income countries. Slightly improved version in relation to "New developmentalism and conventional orthodoxy". (Paper in the book Keynes for the Twentieth Century)
The political economy of trade, finance, and the exchange rate
2007. Trade cannot be de-linked from finance because the exchange rate represents a major intersection between the two field. Yet, the exchange rate is forgotten in international trade and in economic growth courses, and in trade negotiations at WTO. Countries that have reserve currencies abhor taking on the exchange rate (Intervention at UNCTAD seminar)
Developing Brazil - Overcoming the Failure of the Washington Consensus
2009. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system; a first presentation of the developmental macroeconomics. Why Brazil failed to grow fast after the Real Plan. English version available. The high interest-overvalued currency trap. (This book is an atualized version of Macroeconomia da Estagnação)
Foreign savings, insufficiency of demand, and low growth
2008. With Paulo Gala. An overvalued currency is a central cause of insufficiency of demand. The growth with foreign savings policy appreciates local currencies, increases domestic consumption, and causes domestic saving to be replaced by foreign savings. (Paper Journal of Post Keynesian Economics).
The structural public governance model
2007. This paper summarizes my model of public management reform, and shows that, depending on the form it is applied, it may be progressive instead of neo-liberal. Portuguese version available.(Paper: International Public Management Review). Spanish version(Paper: Revista del CLAD Reforma y Democracia).
Why foreign savings fail to cause growth
2007. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings: the consequent exchange rate appreciation increases artificially wages and causes the substitution of domestic with foreign savings. Portuguese and Spanish versions available.(Paper to be published in book)
Substitution of foreign for domestic savings: the Brazilian case
2006. Between 1994 and 1999, foreign savings substitute domestic ones instead of increasing investment (72,5%) The inverse happened when the country experienced current account surplus (113,9%). (Paper, just in this site) Portuguese version available.
Global intellectual property rights: arguments or power?
2006. Survey of Ugo Paganos "Positional goods and asymmetric development". (Note: Econômica).
The substitution of foreign for domestic savings and its inverse: the Brazilian case
2006. The rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings was high in Brazil in the period 1994-99, as the inverse rate was also high in the 2000-05 period. The critique of growth with foreign savings applied to Brazil. (Unpublished paper)
The new developmentalism and conventional orthodoxy
2006. Paper comparing three growth strategies old or national-developmentalism, new developmentalism, and Washingtons conventional orthodoxy - actually a form of neutralizing the catching up of medium income countries. An improved version available with the title "Macroeconomics of stagnation and new developmentalism".(Paper Economie Appliquée).
Exchange rate: fix, float, or manage it?
2006. The exchange rate determines not only exports and imports, but also real wages, consumption and the savings rate. (Preface to book edited by Mathias Vernengo)
 
 
 
 
 

 

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