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The Political Construction of Brazil

2017. An encompassing analysis of Brazil’s society, economy and politics since the Independence. A national-dependent interpretation. Three historical cycles of the relation state-society: State and Territorial Integration Cycle (1822-1929), Nation and Development Cycle (1930-1977) and Democracy and Social Justice Cycle (1977-2010). Crisis since then. (Book: Lynne Rienner Publishers)

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Macroeconomia Desenvolvimentista

2016. With José Luis Oreiro e Nelson Marconi. Our more complete analysis of Developmental Macroeconomics – the central economic theory within New Developmentalism. (book)

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Brasil - desde 2003

Documentos 1 a 60 de 185

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A Construção Política do Brasil

2014. An encompassing analysis of Brazil's society, economy, and politics since the Independence. A national-dependent interpretation. (Book: Editora 34, updated 3rd edition, 2017)



Macroeconomia da Estagnação: crítica da ortodoxia convencional no Brasil pós-1994

2007. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system; a first presentation of the developmental macroeconomics. Why Brazil failed to grow fast after the Real Plan. English version available. (Book: Editora 34) Developing Brazil is an atualized version of this book



Em Busca do Desenvolvimento Perdido

2018. After 38 years of quasi-stagnation, a new-developmental project for Brazil. (Book, Editora da FGV)



Bateu o desespero

5.5.2019 The Brazilian economy is not recovering and liberal economists and financiers are perplex. (Note in the Facebook)



Uma mentira e um erro

4.4.2019 - A proposta do governo de capitalização na emenda da Previdência constitui grave ameaça a um direito humano fundamental que as sociedades civilizadas garantem: o direito a uma velhice digna.



A capitalização acaba com a previdência pública

10.3.2019-Embora a emenda da Previdência afirme que a escolha do regime de capitalização será optativa, na pratica reduz o teto previdenciário de seis para um salário mínimo. É uma violência contra o direito humano a uma velhice digna.



Comissão Arns, em defesa do cidadão

2019. Com Maria Herminia Almeida e Luiz Felipe Alencastro. Aritigo no lançamento da Comissão Arns em Defesa dos Direitos Humanos. Direitos que hoje estão sob ameaça de retrocesso.



Qual é o problema da indústria brasileira?

6.2.2019-Nota no Facebook. A recuperação da indústria é decepcionante por três razões além do fato de a taxa de juros continuar alta e a taxa de câmbio ainda estar apreciada: porque a demanda de bens industriais tanto interna quanto externa continua baixa, porque o governo não realizou a política fiscal contracíclica necessária, e porque os empresários ainda não estão se sentido com confiança em relação ao governo.



Quais reformas?

2017-I propose twelve new-developmental ecnomic reforms for Brazil (Facebook page)



Como sair do regime liberal de política econômica e da quase-estagnação desde 1990

2017 - Since 1990, the Brazilian economy is quasi-stagnant under a liberal economic policy regime. Rentier-financier liberalism is incompatible with growth, because it keeps interest rates very high and the exchange rate overvalued in the long-term. (Paper: Estudos Avançados).



Brazil's 36 years-old quasi-stagnation and the interest rate-exchange rate trap

2017. The Brazilian economy is quasi stagnant from 1990, because since the 1980s it dos not have public savings to finance public investments, and because, since 1990, it is caught in a high interest rate-overvalued currency trap that makes the competent industrial firms not competitive and unable to invest.



Onde foi que erramos? Quando e por que a economia saiu da rota

2016. In the recent past liberals (1990-2002) as well as developmentalists (2003-2014) failed in overcoming the quasi-stagnation that defines the Brazilian economy since 1980. New developmentalism offers a short and a long-term alternative. (Large essay in Folha de S.Paulo)



Remando contra a maré: novo desenvolvimentismo e interesse nacional

2016. Long interview of Bresser-Pereira to Alvaro Comin e Paulo Todescan Mattos for Plural, publication from USP's graduate program in sociology.



Retenção cambial alíquota zero

2016. The crisis made the exchange rate right. Now is the momement to adopt an "exchange rate retention, which neutralizes the Dutch disease, so blocking the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange rate existing in developing countries. (Op ed: Valor)



É preciso criar metas de poupança e investimento públicos

2016. Just austerity proved not to be able to bring back private investment and growth. It is necessary to have as basic fiscal metric public savings, control current public expenditures, and increase public investment. (Op ed, Folha de S.Paulo)



Reindustrialização como projeto nacional

2015. In order to re-industrialize Brazil requires a competitive exchange rate, a low level interest rate, and fiscal responsibility. In addition, industrial policy. (small article, Le Monde Diplomatique - Brasil)



State-society cycles and political pacts in a national-dependent society: Brazil

2015. Brazil is a national-dependent society. The three cycles of its independent history were, successively, "State and Territorial Integration", "Nation and Development" and "Democracy and Social Justice". Portuguese version available. (Paper, Latin America Research Review)



Indústria e juros altos

2015. Entrevista sobre a recessão de 2015. Juros altos e câmbio apreciado. (Video para Dukascopy TV)



Brazil's 35 years-old quasi-stagnation: facts and theory

2015. Texto para Discussão 399. The Brazilian economy is quasi stagnant from 1990, because since the 1980s it dos not have public savings to finance public investments, and because, since 1990, it is caught in a high interest rate-overvalued currency trap that makes the competent industrial firms not competitive and unable to invest. (Discussion paper). More actualized version available.



Saída está no câmbio e na taxa de juros

2015. The way out of the quasi-stagnation since the Real Plan is overcome the high interest rate - overvalued currency trap. (Interview to Jornal da Paraíba)



Vícios e virtudes

2015. A summary of A Construção Política do Brazil. The three state-society cycles in the history of Brazil since Independence. The recent class coalitions or political pacts. (Article: O Estado de S.Paulo, Aliás )



The macroeconomic tripod and the Workers' Party administrations

2015. Since 2003 a developmental government tried change the perverse liberal tripod, but eventually failed, as it was victim of exchange rate and fiscal populism, while the international situation deteriorated. (Paper in edited book)



Os ricos nunca gostaram e temem a democracia

2015. Long interview. Bresser-Pereira speaks about his life, ideas, and Brazil. (Long interview to Leandro Fontoura, Zero Hora)



Desvantagem competitiva tem que terminar

2015. An long-term appreciated exchange rate represents a major competitive disadvantage. (Short interview to O Estado de S.Paulo)



Ajuste para poder governar

2015. No início de 2015 o Brasil viu-se diante de três problemas que se somavam de forma interdependente: a recessão, a crise fiscal e a grave crise política. (Nueva Sociedad)



O estranho mas inevitável ajuste

2015. Embora poucos se deem conta disto, a economia brasileira está semiestagnada há muito tempo. (Article: Valor).



Além do ajuste, um acordo político

2015. Brazil needs a social class coalition which have as economic priority an exchange rate floating around the "industrial" or competitive equilibrium. This is the only way to stop deindustrialization. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).



O fracasso de dois populismos - o liberal e o desenvolvimentista - desde o Plano Real

2015. From the Real Plan the Brazilian economy is caught in a trap of high interests rates and overvalued currency, but the fiscal and especially the exchange rate populism on the right and on the left impede the solution of the problem. (Lecture)



Desenvolvimentistas, liberais, e sua preferência pelo consumo imediato

2014. Liberals as well as vulgar Keynesians show a preference for immediate consumption associated with an overvalued currency. (Paper: Crítica e Sociedade)



An empirical study of the substitution of foreign for domestic savings in Brazil

2014. With Eliane Araújo e Paulo Gala. Econometric comprovation of a high rate of substituition of foreign for domestic savings. (Paper: Revista EconomiA) Portuguese version available.



Governos praticam populismo cambial

2013. Bresser-Pereira estima que o dólar estaria no "lugar certo" a R$3,00 (Entrevista a Roberto Müller, Liliana Lavoratti e Fernanda Bompan).



Ignácio Rangel: Ciclos longos, dualidade, e um depoimento pessoal

2013. A more precise presentation of Rangel's "basic duality" theory to explain Brazilian history. (paper: Análise Econômica).



Os empresários industriais brasileiros depois do fim da hegemonia neoliberal

2013. With Eli Diniz. Brazilian industrialist ceased to be part of the dominant political coalition from the late 1980s to the the mid 2000s. Yet, since the Lula administration, the emergence of a new developmentalism, and the 2008 collapse of neoliberalism, they are again being heard in Brazil. Actualized version of a previous paper. Also available German version. (To be published in edited book)



Getúlio Vargas: o estadista, a nação e a democracia

2007. Vargas was the statesman that led Brazils national and industrial revolution. Although an authoritarian politician, he created the conditions for consolidated democracy. (Paper: tin book edited by Dutra Fonseca Zahluth Bastos)



Brasil, sociedade nacional-dependente

2012. An overview o Brazil since the independence. An interpretation of Brazil considering the political pacts or class coalitions and the growth strategies. (Paper: Novos Estudos, Cebrap)



Crise do euro, avanços no Brasil

2011. The Euro Zone faces a major crisis. It is trated as if it were a fiscal crisis but, actually, is a currency crisis. Meanwhile Brazil faces difficulties, but there is some progress in understanding the role of the exdhange rate. (Conference)



Os três ciclos da sociedade e do Estado

2012. Brazil is a national-dependent society. The three cycles of its independent history were, successively, "State and Integration", "Nation and Development" and "Democracy and Social Justice". (Paper: Perspectivas) English version available.



Desenvolvimento e subdesenvolvimento no Brasil

2011. A summary of Brazil`s development. Why it became backward. How it eventually made its national and capitalist revolution and turned a middle income country. (Article in book edited by André Botelho and Lilia Moritz Schwarcz).



O Brasil já vive a sua doença holandesa (Estado, 26.06.11)

2011.País deveria taxar exportações de commodities para reduzir o impacto na indústria nacional (Interview to Jamil Chade).



Não pode ser mera coincidência ("Ïnside Job") (Folha, 13.03.11)

2011. "Inside Job", Oscar de melhor documentário, é uma reportagem precisa da crise financeira global. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)



O Brasil e o Novo Desenvolvimentismo

2011. New developmentalism is a national development strategy that implies fiscal and exchange rate responsibility. Brazil lacks the later. (Interesse Nacional).



Corremos o risco de crise nas contas externas (Estado, 24.12.10)

2010. O Brasil sofre de doença holandesa, que provoca a desindustrialização da economia. Nosso desafio é neutralizar a sobreapreciação do câmbio (Entrevista a Raquel Landim).



Hoy en Brasil hay un populismo de tipo cambio

2010. The Lula administration is an example of exchange rate populism. Interview to Laura García for Cronista.com de Buenos Aires.



The silly boy (Folha, 18.7.10)

2010. Only a fool hands over to foreign companies public utilities, such as landline and mobile telephone services (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)



Os dois preços do euro (Folha, 4.7.10)

2010. A tese de que é cedo para ajuste faz sentido a EUA, Reino Unido e Alemanha não para o resto da Europa (Article: Folha).



The two prices of the euro (Folha, 4.7.2010)

2010. The idea that it is too soon to start the adjustment makes sense for the United States, Great Britain, and Germany not for the rest of Europe (Article: Folha).



A tendência à sobreapreciação da taxa de câmbio no Brasil

2010. The tendency to the cyclical overevaluation of the exchange rate in developing countries is easily seen in Brazil. (Paper in edited book)



Después de Grecia, qué? (La Onda, 18.6.10)

2010. No hay razón para que el mundo vuelva a sumergirse en la crisis.(Article: La Onda)



Deficits, exchange rate, and growth (Estado, 07.3.10)

2010. Prof. Affonso A. Pastore and other competent orthodox economists still believe that foreign savings cause growth. Actually, they increase consumption and mostly replace domestic savings. (Article O Estado de S.Paulo)



The "matuto" and the magic moment (Folha, 16.11.09)

2009. Does Lula realize it as well? And - what is more important - are Brazilians also aware of the losses they are suffering when they welcome foreign interests so well. Folha de S. Paulo, November 16, 2009



O pré-sal e a nação (Folha, 7.9.09)

2009. Os três pilares do plano do governo sobre o pré-sal são o sistema de partilha, a Petrossal e o fundo soberano. Eles permitem que o país neutralize a doença holandesa. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).



Euclides da Cunha and national identity (Folha, 31.8.09)

2009. In this decade we are beginning to react, to think in terms of the great country we are. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).



Euclydes e identidade nacional (Folha, 31.8.09)

2009. Nesta década estamos começando a reagir, a pensar em termos do grande país que somos.(Article: Folha de S.Paulo).



Empresariado industrial, democracia e poder político

2009. With Eli Diniz. Brazilian industrialist ceased to be part of the dominant political coalition in the late 1980s in the 2000s, as new developmentalism is being discussed, there are signals that they are coming back. (Paper in Novos Estudos Cebrap).



É o câmbio, sr. presidente (Folha, 17.8.09)

2009. O Brasil só terá novamente altas taxas de crescimento econômico quando voltar a administrar taxas de câmbio (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).



It is the exchange rate, Mr. President (Folha, 17.8.09)

2009. Brazil will only achieve high growth rates when it managed its exchange rate. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).



High-speed train and direct investment (Folha, 10.8.09)

2009. It is not of benefit to Brazil to offer our domestic market to rich countries for free. A countrys domestic market is its most precious asset. (Article: Folha de S. Paulo)



Trem-bala e investimento direto (Folha, 10.8.09)

2009. Não interessa ao Brasil oferecer de graça o mercado interno, o patrimônio mais precioso de uma nação (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).



La tendencia a la sobrevaluación del tipo de cambio

2009. Brazil as all developing countries is subjected to the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange rate. Since 1991 Brazil stop neutralizing this tendency, and was stage of substitution of foreign for domestic savings, balance of payment crises and low growth. (Paper: Economía UNAM, México, Vol. 6, No. 18). Portuguese version available.



Pequena euforia, triste Brasil (Folha, 8.6.09)

2009. While the stocket market returns to euphony, government is helpless in relation to the real returning to overappreciate, while . (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).




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