1.  
  2.  
  3.  

The Political Construction of Brazil

2017. An encompassing analysis of Brazil’s society, economy and politics since the Independence. A national-dependent interpretation. Three historical cycles of the relation state-society: State and Territorial Integration Cycle (1822-1929), Nation and Development Cycle (1930-1977) and Democracy and Social Justice Cycle (1977-2010). Crisis since then. (Book: Lynne Rienner Publishers)

Mais informações

Macroeconomia Desenvolvimentista

2016. With José Luis Oreiro e Nelson Marconi. Our more complete analysis of Developmental Macroeconomics – the central economic theory within New Developmentalism. (book)

Mais informações

Câmbio e Doença Holandesa

Documentos 1 a 36 de 36



Neutralizing the Dutch disease

2018. A retention or tax on the export of commodities will neutralize the Dutch disease and assure to the manufacturing industry equal conditions in the competion with other countries. The tax will not represent a buden to the exporters, because they receive back their money on the form of depreciation of the real.



How to neutralize the Dutch disease notwithstanding the natural resource curse

2017. The Dutch disease is an economic problem that a simple economic policy may resolve, while the natural resource curse is a political-cultural problem very difficult to resolve. Paper presented in St. Petersburg.



Retenção cambial alíquota zero

2016. The crisis made the exchange rate right. Now is the momement to adopt an "exchange rate retention, which neutralizes the Dutch disease, so blocking the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange rate existing in developing countries. (Op ed: Valor)



A quase-estagnação brasileira e sua explicação novo-desenvolvimentista

2015. The Brazilian economy is quasi-stagnant since 1990 trade-liberalization, when trade liberalization dismantled the mechanism that neutralized the Dutch disease and the ensuing competitive disadvantage started up deindustrialization. Updated English version available. (Paper in book edited by Nelson Barbosa et al.)



Developmental Macroeconomics

2014. With Nelson Marconi and José Luís Oreiro. Developmental Macroeconomics is a book on development macroeconomics associated with New Developmentalism. In its core are the exchange rate and the current account, instead of the budget deficit and the interest rate. (Book: Routledge)



The value of the exchange rate and the Dutch disease

2013. A revised version of my 2008 paper on the Dutch disease in which I distinguish the value from the market price of the exchange rate. (Paper: Brazilian Journal of Political Economy)



Taxa de câmbio e doença holandesa (Valor)

2013. A sobreapreciação cambial desestimula os investimentos e desindustrializa gradualmente o país.



Taxa de câmbio e doença holandesa (Valor)

2013. A sobreapreciação cambial desestimula os investimentos e desindustrializa gradualmente o país.



Corremos o risco de crise nas contas externas (Estado, 24.12.10)

2010. O Brasil sofre de doença holandesa, que provoca a desindustrialização da economia. Nosso desafio é neutralizar a sobreapreciação do câmbio (Entrevista a Raquel Landim).



Guerra cambial e doença holandesa (Valor, 14.10.10)

2010. Os economistas deverão abandonar o pressuposto de que o mercado controla bem as taxas de câmbio. (Articles: Valor)



Globalization and Competition

2010. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Cambridge University Press).



Globalización y Competencia

2010. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Siglo XXI).



Doença holandesa e indústria (coletânea)

2010. Livro que contém os trabalhos apresentados no 4o. Fórum de Economia da Fundação Getulio Vargas.



Doença holandesa e indústria (coletânea)

2010. Livro que contém os trabalhos apresentados no 4o. Fórum de Economia da Fundação Getulio Vargas.



Taxa de câmbio, doença holandesa, e industrialização

2010. The Brazilian economy is undergoing deindustrialization due to a chronic overvaluation of the real. The structural development macroeconomics that I have been developing since the early 2000s explains why. (Cadernos FGV Projetos)



Doença holandesa e desindustrialização (Valor, 25.11.09)

2009. Uma doença holandesa moderada e a consequente desindustrialização são evidente. Nega-se o fato porque no momento em que isto for reconhecido não restará alternativa senão mudar a política cambial. Valor Econômico, 25.11.2009



Globalização e Competição

2009. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Elsevier).



Doença holandesa e sua neutralização: uma abordagem ricardiana

2008. A country suffering from the Dutch disease has two "equilibrium" exchange rates: the "current equilibrium" that is inconsistent with economic growth, and the"industrial equilibrium" that will be achieved if the country is able to neutralize the disease. (Paper in edited book) English version published in Brazilian Journal of Political Economy)



The Dutch disease and its neutralization: a Ricardian approach

2008. A country suffering from the Dutch disease has two "equilibrium" exchange rates: the "current equilibrium" that is inconsistent with economic growth, and the"industrial equilibrium" that will be achieved if the country is able to neutralize the disease. (Paper: Brazilian Journal of Political Economy)



Argentina neutraliza doença holandesa com retenções (Valor, 7.10.08)

2008. Argentina neutralizes its Dutch disease by imposing a tax (retención) on exports. If they were eliminated, the peso would proportionally appreciate and farmers would have no gain. (Article: Valor).



Transformar pré-sal em riqueza é desafio (Folha, 29.9.08)

2008. In order to transform the "pre-sal" in wealth, not in curse, it will be necessary to neutralize the embodied Dutch disease. (Debate: Folha de S.Paulo).



Pré-sal, benção ou maldição? (Folha, 25.8.08)

2008. The key problem to be solved is how to neutralize the Dutch disease. A 100% national state enterprise may be a good instrument for that. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).



Existe doença holandesa no Brasil?

2008. With Nelson Marconi. In Brazil the Dutch disease is not as serious as in oil countries, but it is sufficiently serious to cause gradual deindustrialization. Paper in edited book. (Paper in Doença Holandesa e Indústria)



Panelaço Equivocado (Folha, 7.4.08)

2008. The tax on exports in Argentina to neutralize the Dutch disease is not really paid by farmers because if it was eliminated the exchange rate would fall down and farmers would be in worse situation. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).



Crescimento e desindustrialização (Folha, 10.3.08)

2008. The manufacturing industry is growing while it is prematurely desindustrializing due to moderate but not neutralized Dutch disease. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).



Fundos para neutralizar a doença holandesa

2007. Response to the Carta do IBRE of the previous month cricizing my proposal of using a variable tax do neutralize the Dutch disease (Conjuntura Econômica, October)



Macroeconomia da Estagnação: crítica da ortodoxia convencional no Brasil pós-1994

2007. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system; a first presentation of the developmental macroeconomics. Why Brazil failed to grow fast after the Real Plan. English version available. (Book: Editora 34) Developing Brazil is an atualized version of this book



Tarifa x câmbio (Folha, 02.07.07)

2007. The Dutch disease is appreciating dangerously the real. Tarifs are an incomplete but effective way of neutralizing such major market failure. The Brazilin authorities are correct in rejectind the Doha negotiatins. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).



Neutralização da doença holandesa (Valor, 31.05.07)

2007. The competent neutralization of the Dutch disease requires an export contribution on the goods that profit from abudandant and cheap natural resources. Such contributibution must be marginal, keep high profits of producers, while moves upward the supply curve of the product and limits apreciation of the real. The money of the contribution should be used to create a stabilization fund for primary commodities. (Article: Valor).



Ganho ao invés de confisco (Estado, 18 a 22.05.07)

2007. Given the Dutch disease, I am not proposing confiscation but a marginal tax on exports that will not hurt but will stabilize commodities' production and profitability. (Two articles by Celso Ming and my letter to him)



Administrar dólar é fundamental (Valor, 18.05.07)

2007. Interview to Tatiana Bautzer on the book "Macroeconomia da Estagnação": the Dutch disease is one of the causes of real's overapreciation. (Valor, 18.5)



Esse câmbio é um desastre para a economia (Estado, 16.05.07)

2007. Short interview on the Dutch Disease in Brazil. (O Estado de S.Paulo).



Desindustrialização e doença holandesa (Folha, 09.04.07)

2007. If we compare the real and effective exchange rate in Brazil before 1990-92 with the present one, it will be clear that Brazil is victim of the Dutch disease. Before that, we were able to neutralize it we are not anymore, and the consequence is disastrous to the Brazilian economy. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)



Doença holandesa e estagnação (Folha, 04.12.06)

2006. The causes of the desindustrialization and quasi-stagnation of the economy are a non-neutralized Dutch disease and the policy of growth with foreign savings. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo)



Prefácio a Agricultura Empresarial

2006. Writing a book on entrepreneurial agriculture, Antonio José de Oliveira Costa understood the risk that the Dutch Disease represents to farmers. (Preface to Agricultura Empresarial)



A maldição dos recursos naturais (Folha, 06.06.05)

2005. In this small article I drafted for the first time my model of the Dutch disease with two equilibrium exchange rates. And related it with deindustrialization and quasi-stagnation. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).




Fale conosco: ceciliaheise46@gmail.com