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Macroeconomics

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Novo desenvolvimentismo é resposta para a crise

2017. A short (4.000 words) summary of new developmentalism - a new theoretical framework to allow middle-income countries to grow again. Ilustríssima, Folha) (Available in English)



Developmental Macroeconomics: New Developmentalism as a Growth Strategy

2014. With Nelson Marconi and José Luís Oreiro. Developmental Macroeconomics is a book on development macroeconomics associated with New Developmentalism. In its core are the exchange rate and the current account, instead of the budget deficit and the interest rate. (Book: Routledge) Nas livrarias e em Kindle



Desenvolvimento, progresso e crescimento econômico

2014. Progress and human development are defined as the advance towards the five political objectives that modern societies defined for themselves (security, individual liberty, economic wellbeing, social justice and protection of the environment); and growth a an instrument to such objectives. (Essay: Lua Nova)



The access to demand

2014. In developing countries it is not enough to secure demand for entrepreneurs to invest; additionally, is required access to it, which only a competitive exchange rate can assure. (Paper Keynesian Brazilian Review)



The value of the exchange rate and the Dutch disease

2013. A revised version of my 2008 paper on the Dutch disease in which I distinguish the value from the market price of the exchange rate. (Paper: Brazilian Journal of Political Economy)



A taxa de câmbio no centro da teoria do desenvolvimento

2012. In this paper I finally defined the relation between the exchange rate and the investment rate (and so, the growth rate). Investment depends on the exchange rate because as the theory says that it tends do become overvalued in the long-term (for several years) within the exchange rate cycle, companies will take this overvalued currency as reference in their investment decision and will refrain from investing (Paper: Estudos Avançados) English version



The exchange rate at the center of development economics

2012. In this paper I finally defined the relation between the exchange rate and the investment rate (and so, the growth rate). Investment depends on the exchange rate because as the theory says that it tends do become overvalued in the long-term (for several years) within the exchange rate cycle, companies will take this overvalued currency as reference in their investment decision and will refrain from investing (Paper: Estudos Avançados) Portuguese version



Structuralist macroeconomics and the new developmentalism

2012. A sum up of a structuralist development macroeconomics and of the ensuing national development strategy: new developmentalism. A theoretical step ahead in relation to Globalization and Competition. (Paper: Brazilian Journal of Political Economy)



Why economics should be a modest and reasonable science

2012. Since economics is a social science, good economics is historical and assumes uncertainty. Thus, it should be modest and reasonable, See corresponding paper. (Conference receiving the James Street Award from the Association for Evolutionary Economics: slide presentation)



From old to new developmentalism in Latin America

2011. My more complete paper on new developmentalism. In José Antonio Ocampo and Jaime Ros, eds. Handbook of Latin America Economics, Oxford: Oxford University Press. (Paper). Portuguese version available.



Macroeconomia estruturalista do desenvolvimento

2010. With Paulo Gala. A summary of the structuralist development macroeconomics: the theory that is behind new developmentalism, the national development strategy required for catching up. Spanish version available. (Paper Revista de Economia Política).



Globalization and Competition

2010. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Cambridge University Press).In the bookstores and in kindle



Mondialisation et compétition

2009. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Éditions La Découverte) In the bookstores.



Mondialisation et compétition

2009. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Éditions La Découverte) In the bookstores.



Globalización y Competencia

2010. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Siglo XXI). Available In bookstores



Keynesianismo vulgar e o Novo-desenvolvimentismo (Valor, 5.2.10)

2010. With José Luís Oreiro. Populist Keynesians are for chronic public deficits. Keynes only supported budget deficits in recession moments, and to finance investment, not current expenditures. (Article: Valor).



Keynesianismo vulgar y el neo-desarrollismo (La Onda, 02.10)

2010. With José Luís Oreiro. Populist Keynesians are for chronic public deficits. Keynes only supported budget deficits in recession moments, and to finance investment, not current expenditures. (Article: La Onda digital).



Globalização e Competição

2009. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Elsevier).Disponível nas livrarias



A descoberta da inflação inercial

2009. The history of the discovery of inertial inflation. The role played by the São Paulo (FGV) and the Rio (PUC) groups. (Paper: Revista de Economia Contemporânea)



The Dutch disease and its neutralization: a Ricardian approach

2008. A country suffering from the Dutch disease has two "equilibrium" exchange rates: the "current equilibrium" that is inconsistent with economic growth, and the"industrial equilibrium" that will be achieved if the country is able to neutralize the disease. (Paper: Brazilian Journal of Political Economy)



Doença holandesa e sua neutralização: uma abordagem ricardiana

2008. A country suffering from the Dutch disease has two "equilibrium" exchange rates: the "current equilibrium" that is inconsistent with economic growth, and the"industrial equilibrium" that will be achieved if the country is able to neutralize the disease. (Paper in edited book) English version published in Brazilian Journal of Political Economy)



La enfermedad holandesa y su neutralización

2008. The Dutch disease or natural resources curse is a major market failure to the extent that appreciates the exchange rate and makes not profitable industries using technology in the state of the art. English version available.



Poupança externa, insuficiência de demanda e baixo crescimento

2007. With Paulo Gala In João Sicsú e Carlos Vidotto, orgs. (2008) Economia do Desenvolvimento. Teoria e Políticas Keynesianas. Rio de Janeiro: Campus: 79-96.



Inflation targeting in Brazil: A Keynesian approach

2007. With Cleomar Gomes. The paper claimsthat inflation targeting policy was adopted in Brazil before the interest rate trap was faced and solved. This was a mistake because inflation targeting is good to manage monetary policy, not to change the monetary regime as it was in 1999 and still is necessary in Brazil. (Paper in edited book). Portuguese version available.



Foreign savings, insufficiency of demand, and low growth

2008. With Paulo Gala. An overvalued currency is a central cause of insufficiency of demand. The growth with foreign savings policy appreciates local currencies, increases domestic consumption, and causes domestic saving to be replaced by foreign savings. (Paper Journal of Post Keynesian Economics).



Por que a poupança externa não promove crescimento

2007. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings: the consequent exchange rate appreciation increases artificially wages and causes the substitution of domestic with foreign savings. English version available.(Paper: Revista de Economia Política)



Why foreign savings fail to cause growth

2007. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings: the consequent exchange rate appreciation increases artificially wages and causes the substitution of domestic with foreign savings. Portuguese and Spanish versions available.(Paper to be published in book)



Exchange rate: fix, float, or manage it?

2006. The exchange rate determines not only exports and imports, but also real wages, consumption and the savings rate. (Preface to book edited by Mathias Vernengo)



Macroeconomia Pós-Plano Real: As Relações Básicas

2005. The perverse macroeconomic model of the Brazilian economy combining high interest rate and low exchange rate with growth with foreign savings and quasi-stagnation. (In edited book, Novo Desenvolvimentismo)*



Economic growth with foreign savings?

2002. With Yoshiaki Nakano. Developing countries' poor performance in the 1990s is related to the Washington strategy of growth with foreign savings. Portuguese version available.(Paper presented to International Post Keynesian Workshop).



Crescimento econômico com poupança externa?

2003. With Yoshiaki Nakano. Developing countries poor performance in the 1990s is related to the Washington strategy of growth with foreign savings and open capital accounts. English version available.(Paper Revista de Economia Política)*



Prefácio a Macroeconomia do Emprego e da Renda: Keynes e o Keynesianismo

2003. In last years the fact that neoclassical macroeconomics is not used by central banks became evident. (Preface to the book edited by Gilberto Tadeu Lima and João Sicsú)



Net and total transition costs the timing of economic reform

1997. With Jairo Abud. The difference between the short term costs of adjusting an economy and the costs of procrastinating adjustment and reform are the net transition costs. In the limit, they determine the moment reform begins. (Paper World Development)*



As três formas de desvalorização cambial

1997. An disguised (because I was part of the Cardoso administration) critique of exchange rate policy adopted by Brazil after the Real Plan. (Paper in Revista de Economia Política). *



A Inflação Decifrada

1996. An account of the theory of inertial inflation original definition(Paper in Revista de Economia Política). For a more complete history, see "A descoberta da inflação inercial" (Revista Contemporânea de Economia, 2010).



The Irreductibility of Macro to Microeconomics: a Methodological Approach

1996. With Gilberto Tadeu Lima. While microeconomics is logic-deductive, macroeconomics is a historical discipline, requiring an inductive-deductive approach. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política) *



Economic populism versus Keynes: reinterpreting budget Deficit in Latin America

1991. With Fernando Dall'Acqua. Contrarily to what economic populists say, Keynes only admited budget deficits in special situations, as a temporary depart from fiscal balance. Portuguese version available.(Paper: Journal of Post Keynesian Economics)



Populismo econômico versus Keynes: a reinterpretação do déficit público na América Latina

1991. With Fernando Dall'Acqua. Contrarily to what economic populists say, Keynes only admited budget deficits in special situations, as a temporary depart from fiscal balance. English version available.(Paper: edit book)



Investment decision and the interest rate in normal and exceptional times

1991. Based on research conducted in 1970 and repeated in 1990, this paper shows that, in 'abnormal times', when the interest rate is abnormally high, business enterprises' decisions on investment take into consideration the interest rate more attentively than they do in normal times. (Paper presented to LASA meeting)



Taxa de juros e os investimentos

1991. A 1990 repetition of a research on the motives to invest of major Brazilian firms originally conducted in 1970. And a comparison between the two results, showing that with the rise of the interest rate, it became more relevant in the decision process. (Research report/NPP/EAESP/FGV).



A teoria da inflação inercial reexaminada

1989. While monetarists emphasize expectation, the strucuturalist theory of inertial inflation privileges distributive conflict. When prices are being increased in a staggered or indexed way, economic agents cannot change their expectatives: they have to increase prices just to keep their share in income. PUC's Rio de Janeiro group, that participate in the formulation of the theory, are falling in a monetarist trap when they privilege expectations instead of distributive conflict. (Introductory paper in book edited by José Marcio Rego)



A aceleração da inflação inercial

1989. Inertial inflation is accelerating in Brazil and threatening to turn into hyperinflation. An explanation of why inertial inflation is rigid is is to be reduced, but tends to increase as distributive conflict increases. (Paper in book edited by José Marcio Rego)



A aceleração da inflação inercial

1989. Inertial inflation is accelerating in Brazil and threatening to turn into hyperinflation. An explanation of why inertial inflation is rigid is is to be reduced, but tends to increase as distributive conflict increases. (Paper in book edited by José Marcio Rego)



A composição financeira do déficit público

1987. Interest expenditures and real state expenditures have different consequences on aggregate demand. Thus a contry may have a public deficit whose origin are the interests paid consistent with insufficient demand and unemployment. This was what occurred in the Brazilian economy in 1985. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política)*



The Theory of Inertial Inflation

1987. With Yoshiaki Nakano. Collected papers on the theory of inertial or indexed inflation. Translation of Inflação e Recessão (1984) with the addition of paper on the 1985 Cruzado Plan. (Book: Lynne Rienner Publishers) Sold out. Available in pdf



Tendência Declinante da Taxa de Lucro e Progresso Técnico

1986. The classical model of development with inverted distribution and three types of technical progress. A critique of Marx's falling tendency of the rate of profit. Chapters 3 and 4 of Lucro, Acumulação e Crise) (Paper: Revista de Economia Política)*



Economia conservadora e economia progressista

1985. From the assumption that Economics is ideologically conditioned, the author distinguishes a conservative from a progressist approach to economic theory and economic policy.(Lecture: Revista de Economia Política)*



Inflação e Recessão

1984. With Yoshiaki Nakano. A book of essays on the theory of inertial inflation. English translation: The Theory of Inertial Inflation. (Complete book) Disponível em PDF.



Inertial inflation and the Phillips curve

1984 (1987). With Yoshiaki Nakano. Inertial inflation is consistent with the Philips that shifts continuously to the right. Portuguese version available. (Paper in The Theory of Inertial Inflation. Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1987: 109-116).



Administrative policy: gradualism or shock

1984 [1987]. With Yoshiaki Nakano. High inertial inflation can be neutralized by a heroic price freeze combined with conversion tables. The original paper, in Portuguese, was the first proposal of a 'heterodox shock' in Brazil, published in July 1984, in Revista de Economia Política before Chico Lopes' August proposal publihed in a bulletin. (Chapter 4 of Bresser-Pereira & Nakano, The Theory of Inertial Inflation. Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1987: 83-107).



Política administrativa de controle da inflação

1984. With Yoshiaki Nakano. High inertial inflation can be neutralized by a heroic price freeze combined with conversion tables. The first proposal of a 'heterodox shock' in Brazil, published in July 1983, in Revista de Economia Política before Chico Lopes' August proposal publihed in a bulletin. English version available. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política



The theory of inertial or autonomous inflation

1983 [1987]. With Yoshiaki Nakano. Translation of "Fatores aceleradores, mantenedores e sancionadores.da inflação" (1983). The founding paper on the theory of inertial or indexed inflation. Portuguese version available.



Fatores aceleradores, mantenedores e sancionadores da Inflação

1983. With Yoshiaki Nakano. The founding paper on the theory of inertial inflation. One must distinguish the accelerating from the maintaining and the sanctioning factors of inflation. English version available. (Paper: Anais do X Encontro Nacional de Economia da ANPEC, December 1983.



Accelerating, maintaining and sanctioning factors of inflation

1983. With Yoshiaki Nakano. The founding paper on the theory of inertial inflation. One must distinguish the accelerating from the maintaining and the sanctioning factors of inflation. (Portuguese version available)



Accelerating, maintaining and sanctioning factors of inflation

1983. With Yoshiaki Nakano. The founding paper on the theory of inertial inflation. One must distinguish the accelerating from the maintaining and the sanctioning factors of inflation. (Portuguese version available)



A inflação no capitalismo de Estado (e a experiência brasileira recente)

1981 This paper explains stagflation with the administrative or cost theory of inflation emphasizing money endogeneity. This paper contains my first vision of inertial inflation: in one of the sessions I explain high inflation by the fact that firms A, B, and C index their princes increasing them according to the going rate of inflation in a staggered way. (Paper: Revista de Economia Política) *



Resenha de Acumulação de Capital e Demanda Efetiva

1985. Review of book by Jorge Miglioli,Acumulação de Capital e Demanda Efetiva in which the author presents the Marxist view of effective demand. (Review in Revista de Economia Política)



O modelo de desenvolvimento de Kaldor

1975. A survey of Kaldor's growth and distribution model. (Paper: Revista Brasileira de Economia)



O modelo Harrod-Domar e a substitutibilidade de fatores

1975. The Harrod-Domar model of growth is consistent with factor substitubility provided that a coefficient of substitution of capital for labor is added. This formalization is done here.(Paper: Estudos Econômicos)



Acumulação de capital, lucros e juros

1974 [1991]. A survey of the theory of the decision to invest and a critique of the neoclassical emphasis on the interests or on the normal profits. Investments, as the classical economists knew, depend essentially on profit expectations substantially higher than the interst rate. Variations in the expected profit rate are more important in explaining capital accumulation than variations in the interest rate. It elaborates "A decisião de investir, os lucros e os juros". (Paper: Texto para Discussão FGV Economia)




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