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The Political Construction of Brazil

2017. An encompassing analysis of Brazil’s society, economy and politics since the Independence. A national-dependent interpretation. Three historical cycles of the relation state-society: State and Territorial Integration Cycle (1822-1929), Nation and Development Cycle (1930-1977) and Democracy and Social Justice Cycle (1977-2010). Crisis since then. (Book: Lynne Rienner Publishers)

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Macroeconomia Desenvolvimentista

2016. With José Luis Oreiro e Nelson Marconi. Our more complete analysis of Developmental Macroeconomics – the central economic theory within New Developmentalism. (book)

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Novo Desenvolvimentismo (aplicado)

Documentos 1 a 60 de 80

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A Construção Política do Brasil

2014. An encompassing analysis of Brazil's society, economy, and politics since the Independence. A national-dependent interpretation. (Book: Editora 34, updated 3rd edition, 2017)



The Political Construction of Brazil

2017. An encompassing analysis of Brazil's society, economy, and politics since the Independence. A national-dependent interpretation. (Book: Lynne Rienner Publishers)



Em Busca do Desenvolvimento Perdido

2018. After 38 years of quasi-stagnation, a new-developmental project for Brazil. (Book, Editora da FGV)



Brazil's macroeconomic policy institutions, quasi-stagnation, and the interest rate - exchange rate trap

2017. The Brazilian economy is quasi stagnant from 1990, because since the 1980s it dos not have public savings to finance public investments, and because, since 1990, it is caught in a high interest rate-overvalued currency trap that makes the competent industrial firms not competitive and unable to invest. (Paper)



40 anos de desindustrialização

2019. The Brazilian economy is deindustrializing and quasi-stagnant for 40 years. The main economic and political causes and what must be done. (essay: Jornal dos Economistas



Secular stagnation, low growth, and financial instability

2019. Secular stagnation of contemporary capitalism is associated to low productiviity, profits achieved through monopoly power, profusion of capitals, and the successful competition of some developing countries. (Paper)



Why, from the 1980s, did East Asia continue to grow while Latin America fall behind?

2019. Latin America was not bcaught in the 'middle-income trap" but into the "1980s' liberalization trap", while East Asia overcome its middle-income condition and are today rich countries, or, in the case of China, heading to become so. (paper)



Debate Bresser-Pereira - Marcos Lisboa

2018. Artigo original de Marcos Lisboa na Folha de S. Paulo sobre a taxa de câmbio, a crítica de Bresser-Pereira, e a resposta de Marcos Lisboa - os três artigos publicados na Folha. Deixo ao leitor o julgamento.



Brasil à venda

22.8.2017. Brazil is a country for sale. High budget deficit and high current account deficits not matched by additional investments lead to increased indebtedness and the sale of the national patrimony. (Note in Facebook)



Déficits em conta corrente e Argentina

2017. Hoje vemos o presidente argentino frustrado. Ele pagou caro aos "fundos abutres" para recuperar o crédito internacional; a Argentina já está incorrendo no desejado déficit em conta corrente, e o peso já está voltando a se apreciar. (Valor)



O pacto que não houve

Este capítulo 22 da 3a. edição de A Construção Política do Brasil está sendo disponibilizado para que, aqueles que tem a 1a ou 2a. edição, possam ver as principais modificações introduzidas.



Onde foi que erramos? Quando e por que a economia saiu da rota

2016. In the recent past liberals (1990-2002) as well as developmentalists (2003-2014) failed in overcoming the quasi-stagnation that defines the Brazilian economy since 1980. New developmentalism offers a short and a long-term alternative. (Large essay in Folha de S.Paulo)



Remando contra a maré: novo desenvolvimentismo e interesse nacional

2016. Long interview of Bresser-Pereira to Alvaro Comin e Paulo Todescan Mattos for Plural, publication from USP's graduate program in sociology.



Retenção cambial alíquota zero

2016. The crisis made the exchange rate right. Now is the momement to adopt an "exchange rate retention, which neutralizes the Dutch disease, so blocking the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange rate existing in developing countries. (Op ed: Valor)



É preciso criar metas de poupança e investimento públicos

2016. Just austerity proved not to be able to bring back private investment and growth. It is necessary to have as basic fiscal metric public savings, control current public expenditures, and increase public investment. (Op ed, Folha de S.Paulo)



Seis propostas para reindustrialização

2015. Documento no.1 do Grupo Reindustrialização. Propomos seis medidas de política econômica para reindustrializar o Brasil e este voltar a crescer e realizar o alcançamento.



State-society cycles and political pacts in a national-dependent society: Brazil

2015. Brazil is a national-dependent society. The three cycles of its independent history were, successively, "State and Territorial Integration", "Nation and Development" and "Democracy and Social Justice". Portuguese version available. (Paper, Latin America Research Review)



Brazil's 35 years-old quasi-stagnation: facts and theory

2015. Texto para Discussão 399. The Brazilian economy is quasi stagnant from 1990, because since the 1980s it dos not have public savings to finance public investments, and because, since 1990, it is caught in a high interest rate-overvalued currency trap that makes the competent industrial firms not competitive and unable to invest. (Discussion paper). More actualized version available.



Saída está no câmbio e na taxa de juros

2015. The way out of the quasi-stagnation since the Real Plan is overcome the high interest rate - overvalued currency trap. (Interview to Jornal da Paraíba)



Vícios e virtudes

2015. A summary of A Construção Política do Brazil. The three state-society cycles in the history of Brazil since Independence. The recent class coalitions or political pacts. (Article: O Estado de S.Paulo, Aliás )



The macroeconomic tripod and the Workers' Party administrations

2015. Since 2003 a developmental government tried change the perverse liberal tripod, but eventually failed, as it was victim of exchange rate and fiscal populism, while the international situation deteriorated. (Paper in edited book)



Os ricos nunca gostaram e temem a democracia

2015. Long interview. Bresser-Pereira speaks about his life, ideas, and Brazil. (Long interview to Leandro Fontoura, Zero Hora)



Além do ajuste, um acordo político

2015. Brazil needs a social class coalition which have as economic priority an exchange rate floating around the "industrial" or competitive equilibrium. This is the only way to stop deindustrialization. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).



O fracasso de dois populismos - o liberal e o desenvolvimentista - desde o Plano Real

2015. From the Real Plan the Brazilian economy is caught in a trap of high interests rates and overvalued currency, but the fiscal and especially the exchange rate populism on the right and on the left impede the solution of the problem. (Lecture)



A quase-estagnação brasileira e sua explicação novo-desenvolvimentista

2015. The Brazilian economy is quasi-stagnant since 1990 trade-liberalization, when trade liberalization dismantled the mechanism that neutralized the Dutch disease and the ensuing competitive disadvantage started up deindustrialization. Updated English version available. (Paper in book edited by Nelson Barbosa et al.)



Sovereignty, the exchange rate, collective deceit, and the Euro crisis

2014, with Pedro Rossi. The euro crisis is a internal exchange rate crisis; austerity is a costly and inhuman policy of internal depreciation. (paper, in the Journal of Post Keynesian Economiscs)



Um estudo empírico da substituição da poupança interna pela externa no Brasil

2014. With Eliane Araújo and Paulo Gala. (Paper). Econometric comprovation of a high rate of substituition of foreign for domestic savings. (Paper in EconomiA, da ANPEC). English version available.



An empirical study of the substitution of foreign for domestic savings in Brazil

2014. With Eliane Araújo e Paulo Gala. Econometric comprovation of a high rate of substituition of foreign for domestic savings. (Paper: Revista EconomiA) Portuguese version available.



Desenvolvimentistas, liberais, e o baixo crescimento (Valor, 02.1.14)

2014. . O governo da presidente Dilma ficou longe da taxa de câmbio que torna competitivas as boas empresas. (Articles: Valor)



Taxa de câmbio e doença holandesa (Valor)

2013. A sobreapreciação cambial desestimula os investimentos e desindustrializa gradualmente o país.



Les pays émergents, ons ils vraiment besoin du capital des pays riches?

2013. A critique to foreign direct investments. Do developing countries really need them? (Presentation)



Um Estado novo-desenvolvimentista na América Latina?

2012, with Daniela Theuer. After the faillure of neoliberal reforms the developmental state is again being built in Latin America. Yet the task is extremely.difficult, particularly in the poorer countries. (Paper: Economia e Sociedade) English and improved version available. Published also in French.



Amérique Latine : après les années néolibérales, l'État développementiste est-il de retour?

2012, com Daniela Theuer. After the failure of neoliberal reforms the developmental state is again being built in Latin America. Yet the task is extremely.difficult, particularly in the poorer countries. (Paper: Recherches Internationales). English and improved version available.



Amérique Latine : après les années néolibérales, l'État développementiste est-il de retour?

2012, com Daniela Theuer. After the failure of neoliberal reforms the developmental state is again being built in Latin America. Yet the task is extremely.difficult, particularly in the poorer countries. (Paper: Recherches Internationales). English and improved version available.



Brasil, sociedade nacional-dependente

2012. An overview o Brazil since the independence. An interpretation of Brazil considering the political pacts or class coalitions and the growth strategies. (Paper: Novos Estudos, Cebrap)



Desenvolvimentismo: ideologia do desenvolvimento econômico dos países retardatários

2012. Bresser-Pereira recorda que, no Brasil, o nacional-desenvolvimentismo foi a estratégia dominante entre 1930 e 1980, e teve êxito em promover a industrialização ou, mais amplamente, a revolução capitalista do país (Entrevista de Graziela Wolfart).



Os três ciclos da sociedade e do Estado

2012. Brazil is a national-dependent society. The three cycles of its independent history were, successively, "State and Integration", "Nation and Development" and "Democracy and Social Justice". (Paper: Perspectivas) English version available.



O ensino do desenvolvimento e a macroeconomia estruturalista

2011. Development economics disciplines should include the main models that form the new structuralist development macroeconomics. A summary of such models. (Conference: slide presentation)



No foreign finance, please

2011. Sovereign countries should not borrow in foreign money (Conference, Buenos Aires: slide presentation).



The global financial crisis, neoclassical economics, and the neoliberal years of capitalism

2010. The 2008 financial crisis signaled the end of 30 Neoliberal Years of Capitalism. It was caused by the deregulation promoted by the neoliberal ideology justified "scientifically" by neoclassical economics. Paper (Revue de la Régulation).



O Brasil e o Novo Desenvolvimentismo

2011. New developmentalism is a national development strategy that implies fiscal and exchange rate responsibility. Brazil lacks the later. (Interesse Nacional).



Corremos o risco de crise nas contas externas (Estado, 24.12.10)

2010. O Brasil sofre de doença holandesa, que provoca a desindustrialização da economia. Nosso desafio é neutralizar a sobreapreciação do câmbio (Entrevista a Raquel Landim).



Novo desenvolvimentismo: Uma proposta para a economia do Brasil

2010. What is new developmentalism? And structuralist development macroeconomics? To which extent is Brazil adopting it? Short answers to these three questions. (Article: Nueva Sociedad)).



A crise financeira global e depois: um novo capitalismo?

2010. The 2008 financial crisis was caused by the deregulation promoted by neoliberal and financialized capitalism with the support of neoclassical economics. (Paper: Novos Estudos Cebrap).



Guerra cambial e doença holandesa (Valor, 14.10.10)

2010. Os economistas deverão abandonar o pressuposto de que o mercado controla bem as taxas de câmbio. (Articles: Valor)



Doença holandesa e indústria (coletânea)

2010. Livro que contém os trabalhos apresentados no 4o. Fórum de Economia da Fundação Getulio Vargas.



Deficits, exchange rate, and growth (Estado, 07.3.10)

2010. Prof. Affonso A. Pastore and other competent orthodox economists still believe that foreign savings cause growth. Actually, they increase consumption and mostly replace domestic savings. (Article O Estado de S.Paulo)



Doença holandesa e desindustrialização (Valor, 25.11.09)

2009. Uma doença holandesa moderada e a consequente desindustrialização são evidente. Nega-se o fato porque no momento em que isto for reconhecido não restará alternativa senão mudar a política cambial. Valor Econômico, 25.11.2009



The global financial crisis and a new capitalism?

2009. The 2008 financial crisis was caused by the deregulation promoted by neoliberal and financialized capitalism with the support of neoclassical economics. (Paper: Journal of Post Keynesian Economics)



Crises financeiras nos anos 1990 e poupança externa

2008. With Lauro Gonzales e Cláudio Lucinda. Differently of what says conventional economic analysis, the cause of the 1990s financial crises in Mexico, Asia, Brazil and Argentina was not primarily fiscal, but the decision of governments to grow with foreign savings, i.e., with current account deficits. (Paper in Nova Economia).



Argentina neutraliza doença holandesa com retenções (Valor, 7.10.08)

2008. Argentina neutralizes its Dutch disease by imposing a tax (retención) on exports. If they were eliminated, the peso would proportionally appreciate and farmers would have no gain. (Article: Valor).



Existe doença holandesa no Brasil?

2008. With Nelson Marconi. In Brazil the Dutch disease is not as serious as in oil countries, but it is sufficiently serious to cause gradual deindustrialization. Paper in edited book. (Paper in Doença Holandesa e Indústria)



Macroeconomics of stagnation and new developmentalism in Latin America

2007.Paper comparing three growth strategies: old or national-developmentalism, new developmentalism, and Washingtons conventional orthodoxy - actually a form of neutralizing the catching up of medium income countries. Slightly improved version in relation to "New developmentalism and conventional orthodoxy". (Paper in the book Keynes for the Twentieth Century)



The political economy of trade, finance, and the exchange rate

2007. Trade cannot be de-linked from finance because the exchange rate represents a major intersection between the two field. Yet, the exchange rate is forgotten in international trade and in economic growth courses, and in trade negotiations at WTO. Countries that have reserve currencies abhor taking on the exchange rate (Intervention at UNCTAD seminar)



Chained cycles of society and the state in Brazil

2007. Brazilian society underwent two cycles in the twentieth century, followed, with a gap, by the respective political coalition. Between the beginning of the century and 1964, the first society cycle, "Nação e Desenvolvimento", corresponded at state level by the National-Developmentalist political pact (1930-1984). The second , "Democracia e Justiça Social", begins in the late 1960s and gets exhausted in middle 2000s. It correspond to two political coalitions: first, between 1977 and 1987, the 1977 Popular-Democratic Pact, that achieves democratic transition and political power in 1985 but collapses two years later it follows a political vacuum and, from 1991 to the present, we have the Liberal-Dependent Pact precariously combined with the democratic and social ideas - and no real economic development. (Section of the book Macroeconomia da Estagnação)



Macroeconomia da Estagnação: crítica da ortodoxia convencional no Brasil pós-1994

2007. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system; a first presentation of the developmental macroeconomics. Why Brazil failed to grow fast after the Real Plan. English version available. (Book: Editora 34) Developing Brazil is an atualized version of this book



Estado y mercado en el nuevo desarrollismo

2007. This is a reduced version of a "Novo desenvolvimentismo e ortodoxia convencional". It compares three growth strategies: old or national-developmentalism, new developmentalism, and Washington,s conventional orthodoxy. Portuguese version available. (Paper: Nueva Sociedad)



Developing Brazil - Overcoming the Failure of the Washington Consensus

2009. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system; a first presentation of the developmental macroeconomics. Why Brazil failed to grow fast after the Real Plan. English version available. The high interest-overvalued currency trap. (This book is an atualized version of Macroeconomia da Estagnação)



Neutralização da doença holandesa (Valor, 31.05.07)

2007. The competent neutralization of the Dutch disease requires an export contribution on the goods that profit from abudandant and cheap natural resources. Such contributibution must be marginal, keep high profits of producers, while moves upward the supply curve of the product and limits apreciation of the real. The money of the contribution should be used to create a stabilization fund for primary commodities. (Article: Valor).



Ganho ao invés de confisco (Estado, 18 a 22.05.07)

2007. Given the Dutch disease, I am not proposing confiscation but a marginal tax on exports that will not hurt but will stabilize commodities' production and profitability. (Two articles by Celso Ming and my letter to him)




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