2017. Rentier-financier capitalism is in economic crisis since 2008 and in political crisis since 2016. The secular stagnation issue was brought again to the fore, in so far as capitalism turned again liberal (instead of developmental) since 1980. But it is more likely that rich countries will face low growth, financial instability, and increasing inequality, unless they are able to criticize economic liberalism. (Paper for Berlin conference)
2016. Against conventional wisdom, countries that don’t incur into current account deficits grow faster, because such deficits correspond to an overvalued currency that encourages consumption and discourages investment. (Paper)
2017. The Dutch disease is an economic problem that a simple economic policy may resolve, while the natural resource curse is a political-cultural problem very difficult to resolve. Paper presented in St. Petersburg.
2017. Em países em desenvolvimento a sofisticação produtiva e o aumento da produtividade podem ser melhor explicados pela transferência de trabalhadores e técnicos para os setores mais sofisticados, do que pelos rendimentos crescentes, que são mais relevantes para os países ricos.
2015. New Developmentalism is a theory that must be distinguished from really existing forms of developmentalism. It was preceded by Classical Developmentalism. Social-developmentalism is a version of the later characterized by a high preference for immediate consumption. Portuguese version available (Paper)
A reconstrução da indústria Brasileira: A conexão entre o regime macroeconômico e a política industrial
2016 (To be published – TD-413)
2016. This paper, first, situates the nation-state historically, as a product of the capitalist revolution. Second, it distinguishes the state (the law system and the organization that guarantees it) from the nation-state or country (the territorial political unit formed by a nation, a state and a territory). Third, it defines nation, civil society and class coalitions, understanding that they are forms of society politically organized, which role is to act as intermediary between society and the state. Fourth, it uses these concepts plus the ones of relative autonomy and of anteriority to understand the ever changing relation between the state and society, where in early moments the state or its elites assumed the lead, and later, as democratization takes place, the protagonist role changed gradually to the people. The paper emphasizes the class coalitions, and argues that behind the two basic forms or economic and political organization of capitalism – developmentalism and economic liberalism – there are the correspondent class coalitions.
2015. Texto para Discussão 399. The Brazilian economy is quasi stagnant from 1990, because since the 1980s it dos not have public savings to finance public investments, and because, since 1990, it is caught in a high interest rate-overvalued currency trap that makes the competent industrial firms not competitive and unable to invest. (Discussion paper). More actualized version available.
2015. Texto para Discussão.
2014. The domestic and foreign (imperialism) obstacles that pre-industrial countries face to realize their national and industrial or capitalist revolution. (EESP/FGV discussion paper 367)
Pedro Cezar Dutra Fonseca e Andrés Ferrari Haines.
2012 (2015). New developmentalism and its structuralist development macroeconomics is theory/strategy, here compared with old developmentalism and liberal orthodoxy. (Paper in book in homage of Roberto Frenkel)