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Substitution of foreign for domestic savings: the Brazilian case

2006. Between 1994 and 1999, foreign savings substitute domestic ones instead of increasing investment (72,5%) The inverse happened when the country experienced current account surplus (113,9%). (Paper, just in this site) Portuguese version available.

Rentier-financier capitalism

2018. Rentiers, the inheritors of the entrepreneurs, and financiers, a special type of technobureaucrats, are the fuling classes in contemporary capitalism; neoliberalism is their ideology. The financiers manage the wealth of the idle rentiers and act as organic intellectuals of this very narrow class coalition. (Paper to be published)

Neutralizing the Dutch disease

2018. A retention or tax on the export of commodities will neutralize the Dutch disease and assure to the manufacturing industry equal conditions in the competion with other countries. The tax will not represent a buden to the exporters, because they receive back their money on the form of depreciation of the real. (Paper to be published)

Growth and distribution: a revised classical model

2018. The phases of capitalist development having as criteria the variables of Marx's model of the falling tendency of the rate of profit. It actualizes the book Lucro, Acumulação e Crise (1986). (Paper in the Brazilian Journal of Political Economy)

Economic nationalism and developmentalism

2018. An encompassing paper on economic nationalism, its relation to developmentalism, and why it is a condition of growth in a world where nation-states rather compete than cooperate. (published paper)

The two forms of capitalism: developmentalism and economic liberalism

2017. Capitalism and the state are either developmental, or liberal. Developmentalism and economic liberalism are two forms of coordinating capitalism. Capitalism was born developmental anywhere, in England or in the US, in Germany or in Brazil, in Japan or in China. (paper: Brazilian Journal of Political Economy)

New developmentalism: Macroeconomics and political economy for developing countries

2017. A short (4.000 words) summary of new developmentalism – a new theoretical framework for allow middle-income countries to grow again. (DOC Research Institute website) (Available in Portuguese)

Secular stagnation in the framework of rentier-financier capitalism and globalization

2017. Rentier-financier capitalism is in economic crisis since 2008 and in political crisis since 2016. The secular stagnation issue was brought again to the fore, in so far as capitalism turned again liberal (instead of developmental) since 1980. But it is more likely that rich countries will face low growth, financial instability, and increasing inequality, unless they are able to criticize economic liberalism. (Paper for Berlin conference)

Why the ‘Rest’ doesn’t need foreign finance

2016. Against conventional wisdom, countries that don’t incur into current account deficits grow faster, because such deficits correspond to an overvalued currency that encourages consumption and discourages investment. (Paper)

Managerial reform and legitimization of the social state

2017. A central objective of the 1995 Managerial Reform of the State was to turn more efficient the large social services, and so, legitimize the Social State defined in the 1988 Constitution. Paper Portuguese version available

How to neutralize the Dutch disease notwithstanding the natural resource curse

2017. The Dutch disease is an economic problem that a simple economic policy may resolve, while the natural resource curse is a political-cultural problem very difficult to resolve. Paper presented in St. Petersburg.

How to neutralize the Dutch disease notwithstanding the natural resources curse

2017. Presentation to Likhachov Scientific Conference in St.Petersburg, Russia.

Brazil's 36 years-old quasi-stagnation and the interest rate-exchange rate trap

2017. The Brazilian economy is quasi stagnant from 1990, because since the 1980s it dos not have public savings to finance public investments, and because, since 1990, it is caught in a high interest rate-overvalued currency trap that makes the competent industrial firms not competitive and unable to invest.

Democracy and growth in pre-industrial countries

2017. Pre-industrial countries are supposed to realize their capitalist revolution in a global political famework that requires that they are democratic. But today's rich and middle income countries made it while their regimes was authoritarian. Publicado como Texto para Discussão

Models of developmental state

2016. All industrial revolutions happened in the framework of a developmental state. We can distinguish in history four basic models of developmental state. Portuguese version available.(Texto p/ Discussão)