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Substituição de poupança interna pela externa: o caso do Brasil

2006. Between 1994 and 1999, foreign savings substitute domestic ones instead of increasing investment (72,5%) The inverse happened when the country experienced current account surplus (113,9%). (Paper available only in this site) English version available.

Substitution of foreign for domestic savings: the Brazilian case

2006. Between 1994 and 1999, foreign savings substitute domestic ones instead of increasing investment (72,5%) The inverse happened when the country experienced current account surplus (113,9%). (Paper, just in this site) Portuguese version available.

Why the ‘Rest’ doesn’t need foreign finance

2016. Against conventional wisdom, countries that don’t incur into current account deficits grow faster, because such deficits correspond to an overvalued currency that encourages consumption and discourages investment. (Paper)

Why developing countries should not incur foreign debt: the Brazilian experience

2016. Paper with Thiago de Moraes Moreira. Current account deficits, even when financed by direct investments, hinder instead of enhance growth because the cause overvaluation of the national currency. (Paper in edited book to be published)

Macroeconomia Desenvolvimentista

2016. With José Luis Oreiro e Nelson Marconi. Our more complete analysis of Developmental Macroeconomics – the central economic theory within New Developmentalism. (book)

Um estudo empírico da substituição da poupança interna pela externa no Brasil

2014. With Eliane Araújo and Paulo Gala. (Paper). Econometric comprovation of a high rate of substituition of foreign for domestic savings. (Paper in EconomiA, da ANPEC). English version available.

An empirical study of the substitution of foreign for domestic savings in Brazil

2014. With Eliane Araújo e Paulo Gala. Econometric comprovation of a high rate of substituition of foreign for domestic savings. (Paper: Revista EconomiA) Portuguese version available.

Globalización y Competencia

2010. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Siglo XXI).

Poupança externa e investimento (debate com o prof. Affonso Celso Pastore)

2010. The four articles of my debate with prof. Affonso Celso Pastore on whether or not “foreign savings” (current account deficits) contribute to investment and growth.

O pré-sal e a nação (Folha, 7.9.09)

2009. Os três pilares do plano do governo sobre o pré-sal são o sistema de partilha, a Petrossal e o fundo soberano. Eles permitem que o país neutralize a doença holandesa. (Article: Folha de S.Paulo).

Tasks in building a New Bretton Woods (Website, 10.11.08)

2008. To avoid new global financial crisis it would be necessary to convene among nations a maximum current account deficit in relation to GDP that would be allowed to countries. (Article just published in this website)

Câmbio real e poupança interna (Valor, 20.8.08)

2008. Contrarily to what say conventional economists, current account deficit does not imply excess demand it may simply be the outcome of an overvalued exchange rate. (Article with Paulo Gala: Valor).

The political economy of trade, finance, and the exchange rate

2007. Trade cannot be de-linked from finance because the exchange rate represents a major intersection between the two field. Yet, the exchange rate is forgotten in international trade and in economic growth courses, and in trade negotiations at WTO. Countries that have reserve currencies abhor taking on the exchange rate (Intervention at UNCTAD seminar)

Developing Brazil – Overcoming the Failure of the Washington Consensus

2009. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system; a first presentation of the developmental macroeconomics. Why Brazil failed to grow fast after the Real Plan. English version available. The high interest-overvalued currency trap. (This book is an atualized version of Macroeconomia da Estagnação)

Macroeconomia da Estagnação: crítica da ortodoxia convencional no Brasil pós-1994

2007. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system; a first presentation of the developmental macroeconomics. Why Brazil failed to grow fast after the Real Plan. English version available. (Book: Editora 34) Developing Brazil is an atualized version of this book